Iran has made its debut. Since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the U.S.-led nuclear deal with Iran, took effect on January 16, Iran has orchestrated a flurry of diplomatic activity between European trade ministers, while courting attention from Russia and China. Yet, the United States is the wallflower at the party. Iran now seeks as much as $50 billion in foreign direct investment per year after the lifting of U.N. and EU sanctions with the implementation of the JCPOA. Iran’s gross domestic product growth target of 8 percent per year would require about $90 billion in foreign investment and external financing, according to Moody’s. Iran’s targets are ambitious, but not unprecedented in its recent history, as data from Emirates NBD and Bloomberg suggest. Read more
The surprise Cabinet reshuffle undertaken on January 27 by Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani reflected and reinforced the convergence of three trends that together are reshaping the policymaking and decision making landscape in Qatar. An influx of new ministers signals the continued clearing out of the “old guard” as Tamim consolidates his position after assuming power from his father in June 2013. A reduction in the overall number of ministries reflects the fiscal pressures on Qatar as government spending is scaled back considerably and the country enters a period of relative austerity after years of double-digit growth. Changes in the foreign and defense portfolios illustrate the centrality of policymaking in these key ministries as the Qatari military participates in ground operations (in Yemen) for the first time in its relatively short history as a sovereign state. Read more
Austerity, subsidy cuts, and diversification are buzz words in the Gulf states right now. While budget deficits are projected across the Gulf Cooperation Council for 2016, the intensity of economic reform has so far been mild and measured. Governments are testing public appetite and consent for reform, what some analysts have termed a renegotiation of the rentier bargain, and perhaps more euphemistically, the Gulf social contract. With this edition, Market Watch introduces our Economic Reform Barometer, which will monitor initiatives taken by Gulf states as they seek fiscal, monetary, and labor policy changes to meet the challenge of reduced state revenue from natural resources. Read more
Is Saudi Arabia really preparing to send ground troops into Syria? When Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri said on February 4 that Riyadh was willing to contribute ground troops or special forces to any international initiative to combat ISIL in Syria, most observers dismissed the idea. But this past week the logic of these statements has become clearer, and the prospect of their realisation, perhaps, slightly less farfetched. Read more
In the Media
AGSIW Non-resident Fellow Fahad Nazerdiscussed the possibility of a Saudi ground invasion against ISIL in Syria with ABC News, noting that such a campaign may garner initial support among Saudis. Nazer further elaborated in another article with Newsweek, saying that, "The Saudis have been very consistent in saying that it is the brutality of the Assad regime that has enabled ISIL to thrive in Syria."
Nazer additionally discussed the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Washington in an article for The Christian Science Monitor, citing "a consensus among Saudi officials that there is an impasse with the Obama administration and the real focus is on 2017." He also noted public relations efforts by the kingdom in an article for The Huffington Post, including Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir's op-ed in The New York Times.
Millennial Gulf Design Competition
AGSIW is soliciting entries for an original logo and header design for the Millennial Gulf bilingual webpage.
Millennial Gulf is a bimonthly series published by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) reporting on youth-led initiatives in the realms of culture, politics, technology, and entrepreneurship in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The series profiles the efforts of individuals and organizations engaged in innovation and the promotion of social change, and highlights creative expressions in literature, art, and social media. The goal of Millennial Gulf is to elevate the voices of youth in the GCC and to deepen understanding of their concerns and aspirations.
We are looking for a design that captures the essence of youth-led change and the intention of the series as stated above. Submissions must be accompanied by a design statement and artists are encouraged to incorporate both English and Arabic into the design. Read more
