The global energy industry is in the midst of writing a new chapter in its long-storied history as oil producing companies and countries reset their strategies and policies to meet the challenges of a technology-driven, lower oil price era. Industry expectations that prices would steadily strengthen by the end of 2017, as oil inventories contracted and production cuts took place with reduced capital investment curtailing supply, gave way to a soberer mindset. The prevailing industry narrative now sees $50-60/bbl as the new normal through the end of the decade, and possibly longer. Read more
One of the key aspects of the ongoing Gulf crisis, which pits a quartet of countries composed of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Egypt against Qatar, is the attempt to denounce Qatar and its leadership over its support of Islamist activist and jihadist networks. This has involved not only an international campaign to isolate Qatar, but also an internal one to discredit the Qatari leadership among Arab and Islamic audiences. Last week in Saudi Arabia the campaign intensified with the announcement of the discovery of an “intelligence cell” linked to a foreign country. Read more
Almost nine months after OPEC and its non-OPEC partners implemented production cuts in a bid to rebalance oversupplied markets, tighter supply and demand fundamentals are now supporting prices in a higher $50-55 per barrel (/bbl) range. Global oil prices have ebbed and flowed daily but on a monthly basis have maintained a slow upward trend since June, with international benchmark crude prices trading $8-12/bbl above the 2017 lows. Read more
Saudi Arabia has been sending bold messages domestically with the recent security crackdown on influential clerics, intellectuals, and other public figures, while simultaneously engaging in a global soft power projection, most recently through an event held in the heart of New York. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s MiSK charity foundation partnered with the United Nations Development Programme just a few days before the opening of the 72nd session of the U.N. General Assembly to hold a youth forum. The MiSK-UNDP forum “Promoting Tolerance for Peace and Sustainable Development: A Dialogue with Youth,” was not only addressed to the Saudi youth who are MiSK’s primary audience, but to the international community. Read more
تصعيد الضغوط من قبل إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب ضد إيران، الذي توقعنا حدوثه في مقالة الأسبوع الماضي، في سياق ابتعاد أو حتى انسحاب الولايات المتحدة عن الاتفاق النووي الدولي مع إيران، أصبح الشعار الرسمي للرئيس ترامب في تعامله في المرحلة المقبلة مع إيران. في الواقع، استخدم الرئيس الأمريكي فرصته الأولى لمخاطبة العالم من وراء منبر الجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة ليوجه تهديدات ويتقدم بشروط صعبة، وقد يراها البعض تعجيزية، لكل من إيران التي جمدت مؤقتا برنامجها النووي، وكوريا الشمالية التي تواصل بسرعة كبيرة برامجها النووية والصاروخية حيث بدت –أكثر من إيران- وكأنها تسير على طريق مواجهة شبه حتمية مع الولايات المتحدة، مع خطر استئناف الحرب الكورية منذ توقف القتال في شبه الجزيرة الكورية دون اتفاق سلام في 1953 اطلع على المزيد
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington is pleased to announce that David Des Roches and David Roberts have joined the institute as non-resident fellows.
DB Des Roches is an associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at National Defense University, where he specializes in countries of the Arabian Peninsula, Gulf Cooperation Council regional security, border security, weapons transfers, missile defense, counterinsurgency, terrorism, and emerging trends. He is the editor of The Arms Trade, Military Services and the Security Market in the Gulf: Trends and Implications(Berlin: Gerlach, 2016). He holds advanced degrees from the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies, Kings College London, and the U.S. Army War College.
