The stunning arrest of dozens of prominent princes, ministers, and businessmen once thought untouchable, and indications of a broadening campaign against corruption, raise fundamental questions about the future direction of Saudi Arabia. The debate on whether the current round of arrests is a genuine campaign against corruption or a power grab by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman misses the fundamental point: The Saudi state is being remade before our eyes. Read more
The arrests of 11 princes and numerous prominent political and business personalities in Saudi Arabia this week might best be described as a frontal attack on the existing order of business among Saudi elites. The princes, politicians, and merchants caught in the net have been accused of corruption. Of course, accusations of corruption are not news to most Saudis. It seems everyone in the kingdom knew that in certain important sectors, such as security and military affairs, it was normal business practice for contracts to go to companies directly or indirectly controlled by royal family members, who would reap very large profits from them. Read more
The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri almost certainly signals the determination of Saudi Arabia and its allies to intensify their regional confrontation with Iran and its clients in Lebanon and beyond. It’s not just that Hariri is a long-standing and loyal ally of Saudi Arabia, and, indeed, a dual citizen of the two countries. In case there was any doubt about its regional meaning, his resignation was made on video from Saudi Arabia, which he was and still is visiting, and amounted to a tirade against Iranian interference in Lebanese and Arab affairs. Read more
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a busy man. He is brusquely centralizing power in Saudi Arabia under his aegis like no one before him. This has included the recent detention of some of the most senior Saudi princes on corruption charges. Such a move is unprecedented in Saudi history and, indeed, it is hard to point to any such similarly broad arrest of serving and former royals or their equivalents, ministers, and business leaders in any country in recent history. Read more
On October 24, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that his country would “return to moderate Islam.” In an interview with The Guardian, he attributed Saudi Arabia’s adoption of hard-line Sunni Wahhabism to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, an event that in his words, Saudi leaders “didn’t know how to handle.” The statements by MbS elicited considerable commentary because the kingdom’s global promotion of Wahhabism is seen as a significant factor in the adoption of extremist interpretations of Islam. Read more
The transformation underway in Saudi Arabia continues to send regular shockwaves through business and diplomatic circles. After whirlwind announcements on women driving and the opening of the kingdom to foreign investors in new megaprojects, a more domestically focused message is emerging. In a series of short video reactions, AGSIW Senior Resident Scholars Hussein Ibish, Kristin Smith Diwan, and Karen E. Young, as well as Board Member F. Gregory Gause, III offer their assessments of the multidimensional implications of developments in Saudi Arabia. Watch videos
بعد سنة واحدة منذ انتخاب دونالد ترامب رئيسا، وقبل سنة من الانتخابات النيابية النصفية، مُني الرئيس ترامب وحزبه بأول هزيمة انتخابية هامة حين اكتسح مرشحو الحزب الديمقراطي في الانتخابات الفرعية التي أجريت في بعض الولايات، وفازوا في ولايات لم يكن من المتوقع أن يفوزوا بها، وحققوا انتصاراتهم بمعدلات عالية فاجأتهم، مثلما صعقت الجمهوريين. فوز الديمقراطيين في معظم السباقات وخاصة حاكمية ولايتي فيرجينيا ونيوجرسي، فضلا عن انتخاب عدد ملحوظ من الديمقراطيين من النساء والأقليات، أعطى الحزب الديمقراطي زخما جديدا، ووضع احتمال سيطرة الديمقراطيين على مجلس النواب في 2018 في حيز الممكن اطلع على المزيد
In addition to original content, AGSIW.org in Arabic is regularly updated with new Arabic translations of AGSIW's analysis. Recent translations include:
Understanding the lessons of a conflict deeply steeped in history is essential to resolving it. The strength of facts on the ground, the futility of “might makes right,” and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict’s persistent role in the region’s instability are all part of a legacy that must be acknowledged to achieve peace. Read more
Call it shock and awe. Call it a purge. Call it a clean sweep. However it’s characterized, the mass arrest of some of Saudi Arabia’s most prominent royals, administrators, and tycoons last weekend has completely upended both the structure of the Saudi elite and the country’s way of doing business. It’s not exactly the Night of the Long Knives, as the luxurious Ritz-Carlton hotel in which the detainees are being held is hardly a nightmarish gulag. But it is the latest installment in an astonishingly rapid series of upheavals whereby all power is being concentrated in the hands of elderly King Salman and his 32-year-old son and heir, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MbS. Read more
Unlike US President Donald Trump, who openly shares Saudi Arabia’s hostility towards Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid taking sides in the growing Saudi-Iranian dispute. Indeed, the recent meeting between Putin and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in Moscow was quickly followed by Putin’s visit to Tehran, where he met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rohani. Russia clearly is seeking good relations with both countries despite their antagonism towards each other. Read more
In the Media
Speaking with NPR, Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba, AGSIW president, discussed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's anti-corruption campaign, noting that the crown prince "is extremely decisive. He's very organized. He takes notes. He responds to requests in 24 to 48 hours. There's no, 'Let's wait and discuss and reach a consensus and we'll get back to you in two weeks.' The old ways of doing business in Saudi Arabia have changed dramatically."
Also on NPR, Board Member F. Gregory Gause, III discussed political changes in Saudi Arabia: "I think that the most interesting part of this is the focus on these major figures in the private sector." Speaking with Financial Times, Senior Resident Scholar Kristin Smith Diwan commented on the impact of recent events on the media: "The prospect of bringing the giants of Saudi and Arab media under unified government control is worrying."
Non-Resident Fellow DB Des Roches appeared on TRT World discussing the Saudi political shakeup: "I was particularly surprised by the arrest of Prince Mutaib. I thought that Mutaib was more entrenched and I didn't think that he would be arrested ... I didn't think his brother would be arrested either. I thought that branch of the family, house of Abdullah, was still too powerful." Des Roches also discussed the Saudi-Iranian confrontation on Al Araby TV.
Outreach
Senior Resident Scholar Hussein Ibish spoke at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate hosted by the Emirates Policy Center. Discussing the Qatar dispute, Ibish noted, "The confrontation between the quartet and Qatar is, in part, ideological and ideational. It's about shaping the future of mainstream Arab political culture in the coming decades, and especially the character, role, and legitimacy of Islamist groups and what they must do to be considered legitimate players."
Media, Youth, and the New Saudi Arabia
The Saudi Cultural Revolution
Hariri Resignation Signals Intensified Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in Lebanon
Qatar Crisis Slips Down Saudi Priority List
Mohammed bin Salman’s Plan to Moderate Islam in Saudi Arabia
Rising Stakes in Saudi Arabia’s Transformation
A Century’s Legacy of Conflict
The Saudi Crown Prince Is Gambling Everything on Three Major Experiments
How Long Can Putin Dance with Both Riyadh and Tehran?
