On January 20, Donald J. Trump was sworn in as president of the United States. AGSIW senior resident scholars examine statements made by some of the president's key Cabinet nominees during their confirmation hearings – and by the president himself – for clues to the new administration's likely policies on the issues of most pressing interest to the Gulf Arab states.
Hussein Ibish suggests the administration's position on Iran is reassuring for Gulf Arab countries.
Karen E. Young examines key issues for the Gulf finance and business community, including infrastructure, trade, monetary policy, and financial regulation.
OPEC is reaping the rewards of stronger oil markets following its historic agreement with key non-OPEC producers to rein in crude production aimed at rebalancing oversupplied markets and supporting oil prices in a higher trading range in 2017. Prices for benchmark crudes have risen by around 20 percent on expectations key oil producing countries will deliver on pledges to reduce supplies. Agreements to cut production were reached by OPEC on November 30, 2016 and by non-OPEC producers on December 10, 2016. So far this year, U.S. West Texas Intermediate has been trading in a higher range of $52-53 per barrel (bbl) and international Brent crude at around $55-56/bbl. The current higher levels compare with the 2016 average price for WTI of $43/bbl and Brent at $44/bbl. Read more
As it did during the Cold War, Moscow is now working with Yemeni forces that are in conflict with each other. Moscow officially recognizes the government of Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who in 2012, at the height of Yemen’s Arab Spring protests replaced the unpopular Ali Abdullah Saleh through a transition that the Gulf Cooperation Council states helped broker. But after the Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa from the Hadi government, and especially after the beginning of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in March 2015, the Russians have also taken some limited steps supportive of Hadi’s Houthi opponents. Read more
The emergence of social media marked a turning point in Gulf public engagement. Due to the strictly regulated space for expression and association across most of the Gulf states, social media is an attractive medium to freely express opinions about public matters, and to connect with kindred spirits. This is especially true for young people, who have found a respite from the more hierarchical structures of influence, heavily weighted by respect for age and position. In the formative crucible of the years of political uprising and then political turmoil, young Gulf commentators emerged as influential public voices, supported by a growing blogosphere to share opinions and intellectual content. Read more
خلال أقلّ من اسبوع، وبدءا من خطاب تنصيبه رئيسا للولايات المتحدة وعبر قرارات تنفيذية بعضها ربما غير قابل للتنفيذ، وتغريدات غريبة ونرجسية بامتياز، نجح دونالد ترامب في إشعال موجة غضب متصاعدة، أمريكية ودولية. وعمّق ترامب من مشاعر القلق السائدة في أوساط حلفاء الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية التقليديين بعد أن انسحب رسميا من اتفاقية الشراكة التجارية لدول المحيط الهادئ، وخلق تململا في البلاد وما يمكن اعتباره بداية حركة معارضة شعبية، واعتبر رسميا أنه في حالة "حرب مستمرة" مع وسائل الإعلام الأمريكية المحترفة والتي اعتبرها مستشاره ستيفن بانون الحزب المعارض اطلع على المزيد
Outreach
AGSIW Executive Vice President Stephen A. Seche and Senior Resident Scholar Karen E. Young spoke at the National Defense University. Seche discussed the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen and Young delivered the lecture "Economic, Social, and Demographic Change in Saudi Arabia."
Young additionally participated in a workshop at the Baker Institute at Rice University, as part of the two-year project "Confronting the Governance Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa: Toward Establishing Inclusive and Pluralistic States Post-Arab Spring," funded by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation. Her work on the project will trace the policy process and obstacles to reforms across various sectors in the Gulf Arab states.
