U.S. Presidential Election

The United States is in the final four weeks leading up to the presidential election. The candidates, Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald J. Trump, have expressed a range of policy positions. But how different might their foreign policy agendas be, and what might be the implications for the Gulf Arab states? With a focus on issues from regional tensions and security to energy and economic partnerships, AGSIW’s U.S. Presidential Election series explores Gulf perspectives on the 2024 election and considers how the election results may shape the future of U.S. engagement in the Gulf region.

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Trump’s Commercial Influence in the Gulf

Whether or not former President Donald J. Trump wins the presidency for a second time, his commercial brand will remain a visible feature of the Gulf region.

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The U.S. Election and the Saudi Economy

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on the Saudi economy in 2025, but policy differences between the two candidates could have longer-term implications for the kingdom.

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The Gulf States and the U.S. Presidential Election

The short-term effects of the U.S. presidential election for policy toward the Gulf region are likely to be minimal, though the most consequential effect may be indirect and long term.

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Uncertain: Iran Policies of U.S. Presidential Candidates

Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.

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The Kurdish View on the U.S. Election

Iraq’s Kurdish population may benefit more from a consistent U.S. foreign policy under Harris than the unpredictability of another Trump term.

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The Presidential Election’s Implications for Gulf Oil Exporters

The opposing candidates’ energy policy agendas have stark differences, and each will have ramifications for the Gulf oil exporters, the global climate agenda, and international trade relations.

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Day One Problems: Yemen

No matter who wins the presidency in November, the United States will need a strategy that allows it to protect free and open trade in the Red Sea without becoming bogged down in an open-ended conflict in Yemen.

Oil Prices Between Regional Conflict and the U.S. Presidential Election

On October 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the implications of regional conflict and the U.S. presidential election on oil prices.

Will the 2024 U.S. Election Prove an Inflection Point for Middle East Policy?

On October 9, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the U.S. presidential election and what it means for U.S.-Middle East policy.

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For Gulf Countries, There May Be No Clear Preference Between Trump and Harris

GCC states will see advantages and disadvantages from either outcome in the U.S. presidential election but will rely on the persistence of long-standing ties.

Gulf States Choose Diplomacy Facing Region on Fire

Any escalation in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel could heighten the Gulf states’ vulnerability to being caught in the crossfire.

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