Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has so far killed thousands of Ukrainians and displaced countless others. Russia’s actions have also thrown global oil and gas markets into turmoil with direct effects on the Gulf region. Oil prices are over $100 per barrel with some analysts predicting increasing prices. Russia produces about 10 million barrels of oil per day and in recent years has supplied Europe with nearly 40% of its natural gas imports and more than one-quarter of the oil it buys from abroad. Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine to Europe, and Russian oil exports have not been a target of U.S. and European Union sanctions, but Western sanctions have deterred many buyers of Russian crude and even caused problems for exports from Russia’s neighbor, Kazakhstan. Other oil producers, particularly in the Gulf, stand to economically benefit from the steep price increase, while energy-importing countries of the region, and beyond, are likely to suffer.

With OPEC+ snubbing calls for significant production increases, is there still a role for Gulf producers to play? Even if they were willing to step in, do Gulf producers have the necessary spare capacity to affect energy markets? Will the decisions of some major energy companies to divest from Russia mean an increase in investments and production in other energy-producing countries? How will this crisis affect the talks in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear program and the possible return of Iranian oil to the market? How does the spike in prices affect energy transition plans announced by Gulf producers over the past months? And will this latest shock lend added urgency to the transition to alternative energy sources on the part of energy importers?