AGSIW Outlook: Trends and Developments That Will Shape the Gulf in 2022
AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Politics and Governance
Triangular Travails: Iran, the Gulf Arab States, and the United States
Iran and the Gulf Arab states may be sincere in their attempts to reduce regional tensions, but the nuclear crisis casts dark clouds over the region’s security dynamics.
Old Playbook for New Kuwaiti Government Signals Further Stasis
An addictive recourse to the same political class and governance scheme suggests Kuwait’s new government, like its predecessors, will prove unable to effectively confront the country’s many challenges.
Security
Under Pressure, the Houthis May Once Again Turn to Iran
If the Houthis believe their military offensive in Marib is in danger, they will likely look to the only real ally they have, Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s Patriot Buys: The Political Aspects of Missile Defense
As the kingdom faces mounting insecurity, it has alienated most of its security guarantors and weapons suppliers in the West.
Yemen: Diplomats Redouble Efforts But Lack of Leverage on Houthis Undermines Impact
Over the year, there were some small steps forward on Yemen. But as diplomatic efforts continue in 2022, there will still be no quick fix to end the war.
Economy
Public Investment Fund Grows, Bets Big on Tech
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund continues to enjoy steady growth aided by technology-focused investments, but the sovereign wealth fund’s 2030 growth target remains distant.
EU and Oman: Small Steps Toward a Stronger Partnership?
The EU and Oman share a complementarity of means and goals in the Gulf, and a recent aviation agreement is an important step in a trust- and relations-building process aimed at deepening ties.
VAT Hike in Bahrain Points to Fiscal Challenges, Unattractive Choices Government Faced
Even though an increase in the VAT seems the most viable option, higher levels of public buy-in could be secured through greater transparency in fiscal policy.
Energy
From the Year of Climate Ambition to Action in the Gulf
For Gulf countries, 2021 was the year of ambition and new climate targets, and 2022 will be the year of implementation.
Can Green Transition Help EU Build Better Relations With the Gulf?
As the EU tries to overcome its strategic confusion, the transition to a greener economy could provide opportunities for EU-GCC relations.
Event Report – Petro Diplomacy: Gulf Countries in a Net-Zero World
AGSIW's seventh annual Petro Diplomacy conference examined the energy transition and ways in which the Gulf petrostates are positioning themselves for a net-zero environment.
Environment
Paradise Lost: An Environmental Tragedy in Iran
Iran’s Khuzestan province has experienced an unprecedented water shortage; yet climate change alone cannot explain how an area endowed with such exceptional natural resources could fail its people so catastrophically.
Iraq’s Water Crisis: An Existential But Unheeded Threat
Iraq’s new government will have its work cut out for it in addressing the water crisis. But time will not be on its side.
Pressure Builds on Gulf Countries To Take Climate Action
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic dealt a significant blow to global climate diplomacy, but the strengthening of a number of trends might signal more momentous changes to come.
Society
The Optics of Women in the Workforce
There is a recent culture of promoting women’s workforce participation in the Middle East and North Africa, but looking solely at the data misses some of the broader discussion on women’s empowerment.
Zayed University Adopts Experimental Approach, Prompting Skepticism and Support
Students, faculty, and community members are apprehensive about a new interdisciplinary approach pitched by a collaboration between the UAE’s Zayed University and U.S. educational technology developer Minerva.
Kuwait’s Ongoing Struggle Against Gender Violence
Grassroots activism demanding an end to gender-based violence in Kuwait has gained national traction and is encouraging more legislative action.
Arts and Culture
Young Artists Animate Oman's Quiet Art Scene
Omani youth spearhead national pavilions in Dubai and Venice as upcoming artists Abdulrahim Al Kendi and Mays Al Moosawi draw recognition for their novel explorations of love, religion, and self-acceptance.
Diriyah Contemporary Art Biennale: A New Platform for Saudi Artists on the World Stage
As Saudi Arabia’s first biennial contemporary art exhibition, the Diriyah Biennale showcases Saudi talent and puts the country on the international arts calendar.
Gulf Institutions’ Virtual Efforts Transform and Amplify Art Experience
What does the rise of online art experiences in the Gulf mean for the future of art in the region?
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