2020 Outlook: What AGSIW Will Be Tracking This Year
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Robert Mogielnicki
Resident Scholar
Robert Mogielnicki is a resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. An expert in the political economy of the Middle East and North Africa, he previously served as a senior analyst with the Siwa Group and head of public relations and marketing for Oxford Strategic Consulting, a United Kingdom/Gulf Cooperation Council-focused research consultancy. Prior to his consulting career, he worked as a journalist covering political and economic developments in post-revolutionary Egypt and Tunisia. His work and commentary on the region have appeared in Axios, Forbes Middle East, Al Jazeera’s Inside Story, MEED, Al Bawaba, The National (UAE), Gulf Daily News, Tunisia Live, Egypt Oil and Gas Magazine, and Egypt Daily News.
Mogielnicki received his PhD from the University of Oxford’s Magdalen College, where he conducted research in conjunction with the Oriental Institute and Middle East Centre. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, his dissertation examines the political economy of free zones in Gulf Arab countries. He earned his MA in modern Middle Eastern studies from St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, and completed a master’s thesis on labor policy formulation and implementation in the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. He received his BA from Georgetown University as a double major in Arabic and government, graduating magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa.
Mogielnicki specializes in the intersection of politics and economics across Gulf Arab states. He is particularly interested in how these geostrategic states engage in processes of economic transformation through trade and investment policies, labor market interventions, economic diversification, and technological innovation.
Mogielnicki speaks Modern Standard Arabic and the Egyptian dialect, and possesses a working knowledge of the Tunisian dialect. He is a former recipient of the Sultan Qaboos Arabic Language Scholarship (2007-11) and served as a Critical Language Scholar in Tunisia in 2011. Mogielnicki has lived in the UAE, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, and Jerusalem.
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The Yemeni E-rial: A Digital Projection of Monetary Authority
The Houthis are unlikely to find immediate solutions in their nascent electronic currency, but this financial technology nevertheless serves a political purpose for the rebel group.
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U.S.-Iranian Tensions: Gulf Economic Implications
Robert Mogielnicki assesses the potential economic implications of tensions between the United States and Iran across the Gulf.
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Qaboos Successor Must Focus on Economic Prioritization
Oman’s political transition presents the new sultan and his government with a choice to maintain the status quo of economic policy or undertake a deeper, structural transformation of the energy-dependent economy.
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U.S.-Iranian Tensions Offer Stress Test for Gulf Arab Economies
Despite a subdued response by global and Gulf markets, the state of U.S.-Iranian relations poses long-term risks to Gulf Arab economies.
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Add to Cart: E-commerce Development in the Gulf
E-commerce development initiatives align closely with high-priority government agendas to build technology-focused, knowledge-driven economies. However, challenges related to payments, regulation, and delivery threaten e-commerce growth prospects across the region.
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The Contradiction at the Heart of the Aramco IPO
The Saudi government does not see a viable, long-term future in oil and gas but continues to hope that investors will measure the country’s crown jewel, Saudi Aramco, differently.
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Expectation Gap Clouds Saudi Arabia’s Investment Climate
Global investors’ interest in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic transformation hinges on their ability to secure lucrative commercial opportunities in the country.
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Iran May Pay To Play in Crypto Amid Sanctions, Financial Tensions
Cryptocurrency activity is unlikely to offer the Iranian regime an immediate avenue for evading crippling U.S. sanctions.
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One Year On, the Iraqi National Oil Company is Everything and Nothing
While facing bureaucratic and legal hurdles, INOC’s fate rests upon competing visions for the future of Iraq’s oil and gas sector.