Hussein Ibish

Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is a weekly columnist for The National (UAE), former columnist for Bloomberg, regular contributor to The Atlantic and The Daily Beast, and frequent contributor to many other U.S. and Middle Eastern publications. He has made thousands of radio and television appearances and was the Washington, DC correspondent for the Daily Star (Beirut). Many of Ibish’s articles are archived on his Ibishblog website.

His most recent book is What’s Wrong with the One-State Agenda? Why Ending the Occupation and Peace with Israel is Still the Palestinian National Goal (ATFP, 2009). Ibish was included in all three years (20112012, and 2013) of Foreign Policy’s “Twitterati 100,” the magazine’s list of 100 “must-follow” Twitter feeds on foreign policy.

Ibish is the editor and principal author of three major studies of Hate Crimes and Discrimination against Arab Americans 1998-2000 (ADC, 2001), Sept. 11, 2001-Oct. 11, 2002 (ADC, 2003), and 2003-2007 (ADC, 2008). He is also the author of “At the Constitution’s Edge: Arab Americans and Civil Liberties in the United States” in States of Confinement (St. Martin’s Press, 2000), “Anti-Arab Bias in American Policy and Discourse” in Race in 21st Century America (Michigan State University Press, 2001), “Race and the War on Terror,” in Race and Human Rights (Michigan State University Press, 2005) and “Symptoms of Alienation: How Arab and American Media View Each Other“ in Arab Media in the Information Age (ECSSR, 2005). He wrote, along with Ali Abunimah, “The Palestinian Right of Return” (ADC, 2001) and “The Media and the New Intifada” in The New Intifada (Verso, 2001). He is the editor, along with Saliba Sarsar, of Principles and Pragmatism (ATFP, 2006).

Ibish previously served as a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, and executive director of the Hala Salaam Maksoud Foundation for Arab-American Leadership from 2004-09. From 1998-2004, Ibish served as communications director for the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee. He has a PhD in comparative literature from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

How Will Gulf Partners Seek to Manage Relations With Trump 2.0?

On December 10, AGSIW will host a discussion on the future U.S.-Gulf relations under the incoming Trump administration.

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For Saudi Arabia, There’s a Dealmaking Opportunity With Trump

Trump’s unrealized quest to craft a major international agreement presents significant potential opportunities for Riyadh.

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Gulf Countries Seek to Avoid Getting Drawn Into the Israel-Iran Confrontation

Gulf Arab states are yet again watching on the sidelines as other powers shape their present and future strategic environment.

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For Gulf Countries, There May Be No Clear Preference Between Trump and Harris

GCC states will see advantages and disadvantages from either outcome in the U.S. presidential election but will rely on the persistence of long-standing ties.

In Conversation With Raghida Dergham: Israel’s Escalation, Hezbollah’s Meltdown

On October 3, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the repercussions of Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah.

Will the 2024 U.S. Election Prove an Inflection Point for Middle East Policy?

On October 9, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the U.S. presidential election and what it means for U.S.-Middle East policy.

Is the Middle East on the Brink of Regional War?

On September 26, AGSIW and ROPES co-hosted a discussion on rising tensions in the Middle East.

In Conversation With Michael Young: Lebanon Once Again Stares Into an Abyss

On July 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the conflict at the Lebanese-Israeli border.

In Conversation With Steven A. Cook

On June 14, AGSIW hosted a discussion on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Book Talk: Security Politics in the Gulf Monarchies: Continuity Amid Change 

On May 28, AGSIW hosted a discussion on security politics in the Gulf.

Petro Diplomacy 2024: The Countdown to Net Zero

On June 11, AGSIW convened its 10th annual Petro Diplomacy conference.

The Houthi Challenge to Maritime Security

On March 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the Houthi challenge to maritime security in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Israeli Perspectives on the Post-October 7 Middle East Crises

On February 20, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion examining Israel's foreign and domestic policy since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

2024 Outlook

On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.

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Qatar May Hold the Key to Hamas' – and Gaza's – Future

Israel might try to kill Hamas leaders in Qatar, leave them alone, or even use them to help craft a postconflict order in Gaza.

How Is the Israel-Hamas Conflict Affecting Gulf Arab States and Their Strategic Calculations?

On November 7, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Gulf responses to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Is the End in Sight for the Yemen Conflict?

On October 26, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the prospects for the end of the conflict in Yemen.

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The Hamas-Israel Conflict May Upend Saudi and U.S. Calculations

Washington and Riyadh will be watching the next steps before reassessing the potential for a triangular agreement with Israel.

Will the Israel-Hamas Conflict Spell the End of Regional Reconciliation?

On October 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Book Talk – New Military Strategies in the Gulf: The Mirage of Autonomy in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar

On September 7, AGSIW hosted a discussion of a book that examines Gulf Arab states' military strategies.

Is a U.S.-Brokered Deal Between Israel and Saudi Arabia Possible?

On August 30, AGSIW and ROPES co-hosted a discussion on the prospects for an agreement among the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

Is a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli Grand Bargain a Real Possibility? A Conversation With Thomas L. Friedman

On August 3, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the push for a grand bargain between Israel and Saudi Arabia brokered by the United States.

Book Talk – The UAE after the Arab Spring: Strategy for Survival

On July 25, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the United Arab Emirates' transformation after the Arab Spring.

Petro Diplomacy 2023: The Energy Transition and the Road to COP28

On June 27 and 28, AGSIW convened its ninth annual Petro Diplomacy conference. 

How Will Presidential Election Results Affect Turkey’s Regional Outlook?

On June 1, AGSIW and the Middle East Institute co-hosted a discussion on Turkey's presidential election results.

2023 Outlook

AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.

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Secretary Xi’s Visit to Saudi Arabia Doesn't Look Like a Threat to U.S.-Saudi Partnership

Saudi Arabia’s expanding relationship with China signals its attempts to emerge as a mid-level international power, but that shouldn't threaten the partnership with Washington.

Podcasting the Middle East: A Conversation With Kim Ghattas

On December 7, AGSIW hosted a conversation with Kim Ghattas, host of the new podcast "People Like Us."

UAE Security Forum 2022: Expanding Regional Partnerships for Security and Prosperity

AGSIW convened the 2022 UAE Security Forum on November 17, where U.S., UAE, and regional partners gathered to find creative solutions to some of the region’s most pressing challenges.

Petro Diplomacy 2022: Gulf Countries on the Front Line of Energy Security

On October 20 and 21, AGSIW convened its eighth annual Petro Diplomacy conference. 

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Why the U.S.-Saudi Crisis is So Bad and So Unnecessary

Lack of trust has left Washington and Riyadh misreading each other's intentions to the point of creating a crisis where none should have ever existed.

The Middle East’s Coming Centrality: A Conversation With Jon Alterman

On October 4, AGSIW hosted a conversation with Jon Alterman, author of the recent essay "The Middle East's Coming Centrality."

Succession in Iran: Who Will Be the Next Supreme Leader?

On September 22, AGSIW hosted a discussion on political succession in Iran.

Book Talk With Walter Russell Mead: The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People

On September 14, AGSIW hosted a discussion with Walter Russell Mead on his new book and current U.S. policy in the Middle East.

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Iran Has One Last Chance to Revive the 2015 Nuclear Deal

A new EU proposal, embraced by the United States, gives Iran a last chance, but Tehran seems fixated on using it to shut down the IAEA investigation.

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Biden’s Middle East Trip Achieved as Much as Possible

The U.S. president didn't return from the region with a long checklist of accomplishments, but he didn't go with a checklist of ambitions.

What Did Biden's Trip Achieve for the United States and Its Middle East Partners?

On July 19, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s visit to Israel, the occupied Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia and considering implications for relations with the United States' partners in the region.

Can Biden's Visit Create a Lasting Recalibration in the U.S.-Saudi Partnership?

On Tuesday June 21, AGSIW hosted a discussion on President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s planned visit to Saudi Arabia and implications for U.S.-Saudi relations.

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Biden’s Trip Aims at Resurrecting U.S. Leadership in the Middle East

Having found success in reviving the Western alliance after the invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration is seeking a stronger coalition in the Middle East.

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Iraq's Anti-Normalization Law Could Prove a Risky Political Stunt

Iraq’s criminalization of relations with Israel may be domestic political maneuvering, but it could come at a heavy cost for several constituencies.

International and Regional Involvement in the Middle East

“International and Regional Involvement in the Middle East" is a bimonthly workshop series launched in September 2021, co-hosted by AGSIW and the University of Haifa.

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Why U.S. Pressure was Needed to Get Israel and Gulf States to Condemn Russia

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE sought to protect ties with Moscow and strategic diversification but underestimated the cost.

Do Houthi Missile Attacks Outline the Limits of De-escalation in the Gulf Region?

On March 1, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining challenges and threats to regional de-escalation and rapprochement.

What’s in Store for the Gulf Region in 2022?

AGSIW hosted a session as part of Gulf Intelligence’s Global UAE Energy Forum 2022: “What’s in Store for the Gulf Region in 2022?”

2022 Outlook

AGSIW's leadership and scholars assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy in 2022.

UAE Security Forum 2021: U.S.-Gulf Relations in a Changing Region

From December 7-9, UAESF 2021 assessed geopolitical trends in the region.

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Wary But Intrigued, Saudi Arabia is Still Weighing Potential Ties to Israel

A year after the signing of the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia remains poised between joining the accords or deciding it is not worth the many risks involved.

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Tremors from the 9/11 “Earthquake” Continue to Shape the Gulf and Relations With U.S.

The 9/11 attacks reshaped Gulf Arab perceptions of terrorism and Islamism, of each other, and of strategic relations with Tehran and Washington.

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The Debate Over the U.S. Military Role in the Gulf

Maximalist proposals calling for near-total withdrawal or expanding the U.S. military footprint are unrealistic. The task is to find effective ways of doing as much, or more, with less.

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The UAE and Saudi Arabia: The Partnership Endures Despite Oil Dispute

Long-standing but underappreciated differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia are becoming more obvious, but their continuing shared interests remain decisive.

The Future of OPEC+ and Saudi-UAE Relations 

On July 8, AGSIW hosted a private briefing on the developing OPEC+ dispute and the repercussions for the future of the alliance as well as Saudi-UAE relations.

Viennese Waltz: How Can the U.S. Balance Its Priorities With Gulf Arab Concerns as It Engages Iran?

On June 16, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the ongoing Vienna negotiations aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement.

Tehran and Washington: Back to the Nuclear Deal, and Beyond?

On May 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining the Biden administration's efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal.

The Evolution of the Armed Forces of the United Arab Emirates

AGSIW hosted Athol Yates for a discussion of his book exploring the history of the UAE’s armed forces.

2021 Outlook

AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead to assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region during the coming year.

The Future of U.S. Arms Sales to the Gulf

On January 21, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable on the future of U.S. arms sales to the Gulf.

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How Saudi Arabia Can Mend Fences With Biden and the Democrats

After the Obama and Trump eras, mutual suspicions abound, but Riyadh has several potential approaches to improve relations with an incoming Biden administration.

Iraq Briefing

AGSIW held a briefing on Iraq for the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs with Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman, Hussein Ibish, Ali Alfoneh, and Ambassador Feisal al-Istrabadi.

Gulf-Palestinian Relations After the Abraham Accords

On November 5, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion on the future of Gulf-Palestinian relations.

After the Embargo: Iran's Weapons Agenda and Its Regional Impact

On October 15, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion on the implications of Iran's weapons agenda.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Where Do the Gulf States Fit In?

On September 29, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion on Gulf interests and involvement in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

What Motivated the UAE-Israel Agreement and What Comes Next?

On September 2, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the UAE-Israel agreement, the role of the United States, and how the agreement will alter regional dynamics.

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What Motivated the U.S.-Brokered UAE-Israel Agreement?

Palestinians are fuming, but the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel all see clear benefits in the normalization of relations between a key Arab state and Israel.

The IRGC Quds Force After Suleimani

On May 26, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion examining new IRGC leadership and how the killing of Suleimani is likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond.

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Why U.S.-Saudi Relations are Facing an Unprecedented Crisis

Although there are many reasons to believe the U.S.-Saudi partnership can endure, the need for both parties to repair trust has rarely been more urgent.

Inherent Uncertainty: The Future of the U.S. Presence as Iraq Confronts Multiple Crises

On April 15, AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion analyzing the future of the U.S. military and diplomatic presence in Iraq.

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Tehran's Support for Sectarian Militias Grows Despite the Coronavirus and Economic Crisis

The Iranian government's network of foreign militia groups represents its primary regional power projection and national security tool.

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Gulf Countries Strike a Delicate Balance on Trump's Israeli-Palestinian Proposal

Responses from Gulf Arab states to Trump's plan have differed, but they all praised U.S. efforts without endorsing the proposal.

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U.S-Iranian Tensions: The Gulf Arab States

Kristin Smith Diwan and Hussein Ibish discuss the role for the Gulf Arab states in de-escalating tensions between Iran and the United States.

Strategic Implications of Iraq's Multiple Crises

On January 23, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion examining the recent crises in Iraq and the fallout from the U.S. airstrike that killed Iran’s Quds Force commander Major General Qassim Suleimani.

2020 Vision: AGSIW Assesses Threats and Opportunities in the Gulf

On January 8, AGSIW hosted a conversation considering the trends likely to shape the Gulf region in 2020.

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Turkey’s Resurgence as a Regional Power Confronts a Fractured GCC

This paper reviews how Turkish-Gulf Arab relations have developed in recent years, particularly following the end of the main civil war in Syria.

UAE Security Forum 2019: Reshaping the Future of the Horn of Africa

For the fourth consecutive year, AGSIW convened the UAE Security Forum, where U.S., UAE, and regional partners gathered to find creative solutions to some of the region’s most pressing challenges.

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Tehran’s Woes Open Diplomatic Opportunities for Riyadh

Tehran's difficulties, including major unrest at home and in Iraq and Lebanon, could make the Islamic Republic more amenable to a real compromise with its Gulf Arab neighbors.

As Maximum Pressure and Maximum Resistance Max Out, Where's the Confrontation With Iran Headed?

AGSIW examines the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran.

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UAE Outreach to Iran Cracks Open the Door to Dialogue

While the Emiratis have their own reasons for outreach to Tehran, Washington and Riyadh may find it useful as well.

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Conflict or Compromise: U.S. and Iran on a Knife’s Edge

Whatever the path out of the current crisis, Gulf Arab states seeking an end to Iranian interference in regional affairs are likely to be disappointed.

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Gulf Arab States Don’t Want a U.S.-Iranian War, and Could Help Avoid One

Caught in the crossfire already, Gulf Arab countries have an important opportunity to help shape the off-ramp from confrontation.

The Faceoff over U.S. Arms Sales to the Gulf: What Next?

On May 24, the Trump administration issued a national emergency declaration citing tensions with Iran to bypass congressional opposition to arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan.

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Emergency Weapons Sales Drag Gulf Arab Countries Deeper into U.S. Politics

Gulf countries are getting what they want from the White House, but ties with other parts of the U.S. establishment are fraying.

Ottoman Revival: How are Regional Powers Reacting to Turkey’s Resurgence in the Middle East?

On May 9, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion examining Turkey's new and more assertive regional role.

GCC-South Asia: A New Role for the Gulf Countries in the Subcontinent?

AGSIW hosted a panel discussion examining the diplomatic, security, and economic issues shaping the growing relationship between the countries of the Gulf and the South Asian subcontinent.

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New Congress Sounds Alarms for U.S.-Gulf Arab Partnership

Yemen, Khashoggi, detainees, and nuclear technology are driving a deep-seated congressional backlash against Riyadh.

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The Aftershocks of Aleppo's Fall Continue to Shake the Region

From the establishment of the Turkey-Russia-Iran triumvirate to the ongoing Arab efforts to re-engage with Syria, everything can be traced back to the events of December 2016.

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Mattis’ Resignation is Bad News for Gulf Arab Countries

Dealing with an unpredictable, exceptionally political, and nonstrategic administration in Washington poses serious problems for all U.S. allies, including those in the Gulf.

UAE Security Forum 2018: "Yemen after the War: Addressing the Challenges of Peace and Reconstruction"

For the third consecutive year, AGSIW convened the UAE Security Forum, where U.S., UAE, and regional partners gather to find creative solutions to some of the region’s most pressing challenges.

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The Geoeconomics of Reconstruction in Yemen

The conflict in Yemen has exacted a disastrous toll on the country. This paper considers the outside forces in the conflict, seeking to elucidate who they are, what the nature is of their involvement, and what their converging and conflicting interests mean for reconstruction.

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Why Washington Has Reacted So Intensely to the Khashoggi Murder

Factors including regard for the victim, the nature of the crime, the powerful accusers, and Trump-related anxieties all contribute to the extraordinary impact in Washington of the Khashoggi murder.

Maximum Pressure: Are Trump’s Middle East Policies Starting to Yield Results?

AGSIW hosted Raghida Dergham, founder and executive chairman of the Beirut Institute, and Andrew Peek, deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, to analyze developments in U.S. Middle East policy.

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The Midterms Could Reshape U.S.-Gulf Arab Relations

The midterm elections may illustrate that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have become too much of a partisan issue in U.S. politics.

What Now for U.S. Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia?

AGSIW hosted a briefing on arms sales to Saudi Arabia with DB Des Roches, an associate professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies at the National Defense University.

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How the Khashoggi Affair is Straining Turkish-Saudi Relations

With Erdogan trying to exploit the Khashoggi affair and Riyadh in damage-control mode, the controversy is inflaming the Saudi-Turkish geopolitical and ideological rivalry.

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How the Khashoggi Affair May Affect U.S.-Saudi Relations

The disappearance of the prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi won't completely upend U.S.-Saudi relations but will almost certainly have a significant negative impact on them.

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How Iran and the Gulf Arab States Can Start a Dialogue Again

It’s hard to overstate the regional impact of the rivalry between Iran and several Gulf Arab states—most notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—bordering in recent years on enmity.

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Iraq’s New Government: Balancing Allies and Neighbors

With the new government, Iraq could be a major arena for those seeking to roll back Iran’s influence in the region.

Back to Sanctions: How Will Iran Balance Regional Ambitions and Domestic Stability?

On September 26, Ali Alfoneh, Bessma Momani, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, and moderator Hussein Ibish discussed the Trump administration's reimposition of sanctions on Iran.

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Maximal Pressure, Minimum Impact: How US-Iranian War of Words is Unlikely to be Matched with Action

Are the United States and Iran preparing to go to war? The prospect has certainly advanced considerably since Donald Trump became president and, particularly, when he withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement.

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Regional Challenges Dominate U.S.-UAE Discussions During Pompeo Visit

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent international tour – beginning with contentious meetings in North Korea and ending at the controversial NATO summit in Brussels – included a less dramatic but nonetheless very important stop in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates.

Gulf Rising: GCC-Horn of Africa Relations

On June 28, AGSIW hosted a public panel discussion on GCC-Horn of Africa relations.

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Riyadh Can Gain from Iraq Elections, but U.S. Engagement is Crucial

Saudi Arabia’s accelerating campaign to revive its influence in Iraq may have been significantly bolstered by the results of the May 12 Iraqi parliamentary elections.

Shake-Up in the Middle East: How Will Regional Powers Respond?

On May 23, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion exploring the implications of major developments for the Gulf Arab countries and the rest of the region.

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Gulf Leaders Welcome JCPOA Withdrawal but Plan B Remains Unclear

President Donald J. Trump’s announcement that the United States is “withdrawing” from the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was greeted with considerable enthusiasm by many Gulf Arab leaders.

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The Power of Positive Diplomacy: Saudi Outreach in Iraq since 2014

One of the most important and least understood aspects of Saudi Arabia’s evolving proactive foreign and regional policy is its campaign of diplomatic and political outreach in Iraq.

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An Arab Expeditionary Force in Syria is Far-Fetched but so is a U.S. Withdrawal

The White House is resurrecting the idea of an Arab expeditionary force – a concept that, for decades, has surfaced periodically in Middle Eastern discourse only to quickly evaporate and then suddenly re-emerge.

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With the Military Attack, the US Can Finally Start to Get it Right in Syria

After much argument and delay, American, British and French military strikes against Syrian regime targets were finally begun on Saturday morning.

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Did MbS Break New Ground on Israel? No … and Yes

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised many eyebrows with recent comments that seemed unusually conciliatory toward Israel.

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It Will Be a Political Miracle If There Isn’t a Major Uptick of Violence in Gaza

When an entire people and many of their political leaders conclude they have nothing left to lose, all hell can break loose.

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MbS Trip Will Test Strength of Resurgent U.S.-Saudi Ties

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will begin his first visit to the United States as presumptive heir to the throne; it comes at a crucial time, with Saudi social and political changes and economic reform gaining steam and Trump administration policies toward Iran growing more confrontational.

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Tougher U.S. Policies on Iran Reassure Gulf Arab Allies

The Trump administration emphasizes its differences with its predecessors, particularly the Obama administration, and claims to be pursuing radically different policies across the board.

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How Does U.S. Power in the Middle East Today Compare to What It Was During the Previous Administration?

By most objective metrics, U.S. hard power (military), soft power (scientific, cultural, and humanitarian), and “sticky” power (economic) in the Middle East is largely unchanged from four or eight years ago.

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For Many Players the Focus in Syria Shifts from ISIL to Iran

The once closely linked and relatively coherent struggle inside Syria has fragmented into a series of intense, but highly localized, battles, which are being watched warily by regional powers because of the significant impact the outcomes are likely to have on the regional strategic landscape.

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How Trump’s National Security Strategy Will be Read in the Gulf

When Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States just over a year ago, Washington’s Gulf Arab allies were generally optimistic.

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Trump’s Jerusalem Statement May Foreclose any “Outside-In” Initiative with Gulf Arab Countries

Whatever domestic calculations prompted President Donald J. Trump to announce on December 6 that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will move its embassy there from Tel Aviv.

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Hariri Resignation Signals Intensified Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in Lebanon

The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri almost certainly signals the determination of Saudi Arabia and its allies to intensify their regional confrontation with Iran and its clients in Lebanon and beyond.

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Why Bahrain is Leading Gulf Arab Outreach to Israel

Over the past year, there has been a great deal of speculation about the potential for improved relations between Arab countries, particularly in the Gulf region, and Israel, largely based on a shared perception of the threat from Iran and the need for a more stable regional status quo.

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Regional Winners and Losers in the Hamas-Fatah Deal

On October 12, rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas agreed to a national reconciliation pact that began to sketch out a new political arrangement that could lead to far-reaching changes in Gaza with broad, regional implications.

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Saudis are about to Buy a Major Russian Missile System – Or are They?

The biggest deliverable arising from Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s visit to Russia is almost certainly Riyadh’s announced intention to purchase a range of Russian weapons systems, notably S-400 surface-to-air missiles.

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The Gulf Arab Countries and the Kurdish Referendum

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) authorities in Iraq have reported a predictably huge “yes” vote, over 90 percent, in the nonbinding referendum on Kurdish independence that was held September 25.

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What Scrapping the Iran Nuclear Deal Would Mean for U.S. Middle East Policy

President Donald J. Trump has reportedly instructed his national security and intelligence staff to find a rationale for declaring Iran noncompliant with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement Tehran reached in 2015 with the P5+1, the five permanent U.N.

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Existing Agreements and U.S. Leadership Emerge as Keys to Resolving Qatar Standoff

As the crisis regarding Qatar’s relations with four other key Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt – enters its second month, the recent meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo appears to offer a new framework to resolve the standoff.

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Washington and the hard calculations at play in the Qatar crisis

As the confrontation between the Arab coalition and Qatar nears the one-month mark, with Doha insisting it intends to reject the 13 demands placed before it, it’s becoming increasingly clear that if there is to be any kind of reconciliation it will be brokered by Washington.

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Unfulfilled 2014 Riyadh Agreement Defines Current GCC Rift

The past week has witnessed an unprecedented escalation of tensions among the Gulf Cooperation Council states, culminating with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain severing ties with Qatar.

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US-Gulf Policy Symmetries are Genuine and Significant

Donald Trump flew into sunny Saudi Arabia pursued by some of the darkest clouds looming over Washington in decades.

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Trump’s Saudi Agenda: Advance Shared Goals and Change the Channel

U.S. President Donald J. Trump leaves Washington on Friday for his first overseas trip, under a mounting cloud of domestic controversy, beginning with a crucial visit to Saudi Arabia.

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In Search of a Trump Administration Middle East Policy

President Trump's visit to the region raises the question of whether a definitive Trump administration Middle East policy may be starting to take shape

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How America Can Influence the Syrian Conflict

Washington faces a crucial decision on Syria in the coming weeks, with massive implications for its entire Middle East agenda.

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Riyadh and Washington Are Growing Ever Closer

The continuing renovation of relations between Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies with Washington reached a new level this week, moving from the aspirational towards practical application.

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A Sequential Framework for Iran-GCC Détente

The budding efforts between the Gulf Arab states and Iran to develop a process of détente and ease tensions are, in equal measure, important, welcome, and fragile.

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The Hard Work Begins after the Missile Strikes on Syria

After a virtually unbroken string of blunders since his inauguration, Donald Trump finally got a major policy decision right.

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The UAE’s Evolving National Security Strategy

Confronted with serious challenges but also blessed with remarkable assets, the United Arab Emirates has developed a distinctive national security strategy.

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Our Relationship with America is Back on Track

The honeymoon between the Trump administration and the Gulf Arab countries is a welcome respite after years of mutual doubts and recriminations.

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Can Moscow Be an Effective Mideast Mediator?

Moscow increasingly aspires to play the role of mediator in the Middle East, but how seriously should we take this? Russia, along with Turkey and Iran, has been attempting to mediate between the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and some of its opponents in negotiations in the Kazakh capital, Astana, and in Geneva.

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China Leg is Key to Success of King Salman’s Asia Tour

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz is on the first leg of an unprecedented trip to several key countries in East Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, China, Japan, and the Maldives.

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Why Moscow Won’t Side with Washington against Tehran

The administration of President Donald J. Trump has suggested that one of its foreign policy goals may be to attempt to persuade Russia to distance itself from Iran and even cooperate with the United States against Tehran.

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Turkey and the GCC: Cooperation Amid Diverging Interests

The GCC countries view Turkey as an indispensable Sunni ally and counterweight to Iran, but a difficult, and at times unreliable, partner.

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Is an Iranian-Gulf Arab Rapprochement in the Works?

Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sabah Khaled al-Sabah’s visit to Tehran on January 25 was officially billed as a bilateral meeting, but also widely reported to have included a broader outreach to Iran by Kuwait’s partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Iran’s major regional rival, Saudi Arabia.

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Gulf Countries May Find Encouragement on Iran in Confirmation Hearings

AGSIW scholars examine statements made by some of the president’s key Cabinet nominees during their confirmation hearings for clues to the new administration’s likely policies on the issues of most pressing interest to the Gulf Arab states.

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Egypt and Saudi Arabia: No Divorce Pending in a "Dysfunctional Marriage"

Relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia – a key feature of the Middle Eastern political landscape and a pillar of Arab security – took another body blow on January 16 when Egypt’s Supreme Administrative Court rejected Cairo’s plan to transfer control over two uninhabited, but strategically located, Red Sea islands to Riyadh.

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Can Lebanon Repair Relations with Saudi Arabia?

New Lebanese President Michel Aoun visited Saudi Arabia on January 9 in an effort to heal a rift that has been damaging to both countries’ interests but, until now, did not seem readily resolvable.

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Trump’s attitude towards Russia is confounding

The biggest fault line potentially facing the incoming Trump administration in the United States has become clear: relations with Russia.

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Kerry’s Words and the UN Vote Don’t Help Palestinians

The sudden flurry of diplomatic activity on issues regarding Israel and the Palestinians has been full of high-minded, and entirely correct, principles.

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Egypt-GCC Partnership: Bedrock of Regional Security Despite Fissures

Egypt and the GCC countries have a complex, but indispensable, diplomatic, military, and political partnership in the contemporary world.

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Why James Mattis Should Be Welcomed by the Gulf

Amid the crazy quilt of billionaires, Republican insiders and retired generals who are populating president-elect Donald J Trump’s emerging cabinet, the Gulf states and other US Middle East allies are among the few outside of his core supporters with something real to cheer about already: his choice for secretary of defence, retired Gen James Mattis.

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Tougher Stance on Iran Should Reassure Washington’s Gulf Partners

Washington’s relations with its Gulf Arab partners have been strained in recent years, particularly because of U.S.

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How the Worst Option is Playing Out in Aleppo

The unfolding tragedy in Aleppo is not only a humanitarian and moral disaster, but it is a political calamity as well.

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The Legacy of Muhammad Sorour, Key Figure in Rise of Sunni Extremism

The death of Muhammad Sorour at age 80 in Qatar has gone almost entirely unremarked upon in the West, but arguably signals the end of an era for Sunni Muslim religious extremism.

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What Trump’s Win Looks Like to Someone Born in the Middle East

Like millions of other Americans, I watched Tuesday night’s election results first with cautious optimism, then creeping foreboding, followed by mounting alarm giving way, ultimately, to utter horror.

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‘American intifada’ creates uncertainty for the Middle East

Call it an “American intifada”. The election of Donald Trump was a virtual rebellion by the rural and suburban lower-middle class against the educated urbanites who usually define American culture and society.

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Why a Clinton Presidency Could be Good for the Gulf

In these pages last month, I outlined a number of reasons why the Gulf states should be cautiously optimistic about US foreign policy in a Hillary Clinton administration, given that the Democratic nominee is extremely likely to become the next president.

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Turkey’s Role in Mosul Prompts Reassurance and Anxiety in the Gulf

Few outside forces that are not directly involved in the conflict in Iraq have more at stake in the outcome of the battle over Mosul than Gulf Arab countries.

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As President, Clinton Would Adopt a Strong Foreign Policy

With less than three weeks to go before the American presidential election, virtually all credible observers believe that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is now assured of victory.

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Veto Override Isn’t the Last Word on JASTA

The U.S. Congress’ swift and decisive override last week of President Barack Obama’s veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) may have been momentarily euphoric for the bill’s supporters.

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America Needs to Compromise Over Terror Act

Anger in some parts of the Arabian Gulf over a new US law, the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (­Jasta), is understandable.

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JASTA and the Constitutional Separation of Powers

A showdown on Capitol Hill over what is potentially one of the most far-reaching and consequential pieces of foreign policy legislation in many years was set up on Friday, September 23, when U.S.

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Calling Al Qaeda’s Bluff

The battle for Aleppo could be a turning point in Syria’s civil war — not simply because it may prove a decisive moment in the struggle between the government and the opposition, but because the leadership of the rebel forces is at stake.

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Embattled ISIL Targets Saudi Arabia

The appalling massacre on Bastille Day in Nice, France – in which at least 84 people were killed by a French-Tunisian man driving a 19-ton refrigerated truck and armed with an automatic pistol – capped off several weeks of virtually unprecedented terrorist carnage around the world.

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Failed coup will hand more power to Erdogan, not less

On Friday night, the world watched the collapse of what seems an exceptionally ill-conceived and poorly planned coup attempt in Turkey.

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Is this the beginning of a new era in US-Saudi relations?

The recent visit to Washington, New York and Silicon Valley by Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, might, like most diplomatic missions, quickly faded into irrelevance.

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What’s at Stake for the Gulf Arab States in Syria?

The very least that the Gulf states can consider acceptable as an outcome to the Syrian conflict is the limitation of Iran’s ambitions in the Arab world and the regional containment of Tehran.

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Obama is Wrong to Ignore His Own Diplomats’ Advice

On April 6, 1971, 20 United States foreign service officers led by the consul general in Dhaka, Archer Blood, issued the first formal telegram of dissent in the history of the state department.

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‘Islamism Is Dead!’ Long Live Muslim Democrats

“Islamism is dead!” announced Said Ferjani, a leader of the progressive wing of Ennahda, Tunisia’s main Islamist party, as we drank coffee in a hotel cafe here last month.

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Is the Arab Peace Initiative Really in Play?

The Arab Peace Initiative (API) is receiving a great deal of attention these days, primarily from Israel, but also from Egypt, the Gulf states, and others.

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Why the U.S. can’t disengage from the Middle East

One of the key features of late Obama-era American foreign policy is the dominant mythology that all American – and, by extension, any western – military intervention in the Middle East is doomed to failure.

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Obama’s Complex Foreign Policy Legacy Unpicked

The battle to define the policy legacy of any two-term American presidency usually emerges as the election for a successor begins in earnest.

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The Candidates’ Report Cards Are Less Than Stellar

The American presidential election will almost certainly be between former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and real estate mogul Donald Trump.

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Four Probable Developments in U.S. Middle East Policy

This post is the second in a series by AGSIW senior resident scholars on the foreign policy implications of the 2016 U.S.

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In truth, the U.S. hasn’t given up on the Gulf

Marshall McLuhan’s famous observation that sometimes “the medium is the message” perfectly describes the substance of last week’s US-GCC summit.

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What to Expect from the U.S.-GCC Summit

When President Barack Obama visits Saudi Arabia on April 20-21 and meets with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders, he will be tackling one of the most important, but deeply strained, U.S.

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Obama and GCC leaders have a lot to talk about

The US-GCC summit meeting in Saudi Arabia next Thursday should prove an important milestone in the relationship, especially since it is intended to set the precedent of an annual head- of-state level summit into the foreseeable future.

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US-Gulf ties have frayed but are not beyond repair

My visit to the UAE last week strongly reinforced for me that negative misperceptions about Gulf relations with the United States, which in fact remain very strong, are deeply felt and widespread.

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How Russia's Drawdown Will Affect War and Peace in Syria

The announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the “main part” of his country’s military forces that have intervened in Syria since late September 2015 will begin withdrawing soon may prove less dramatic in practice than many hope or suspect.

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Obama’s Flawed Foreign Policy Doctrine Laid Bare

Jeffrey Goldberg’s new article in The Atlantic comes close to realising the familiar cliché about journalism being a “first draft of history”.

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Caution is Needed, But Hizbollah Can’t Be Left Unchecked

One can readily understand why Saudi Arabia suspended a $3 billion (Dh11bn) aid package for the Lebanese Armed Forces to purchase French weapons, and cancelled outright an additional $1 billion in support for Lebanese internal security.

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Can Saudi Arabia Afford Its Aid Cut to Lebanon?

Saudi Arabia’s decision to suspend a major military aid package to Lebanon – $3 billion earmarked for the purchase of French weapons – and to revoke another $1 billion pledged to support Lebanon’s internal security services, is an unexpected and dramatic change of policy toward a politically crucial Arab country.

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Washington Often Forgets Who Its Real Allies Are

Tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia are becoming a disturbingly prominent feature of political discourse in the two countries.

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Why America Turned Off Al Jazeera

The closing of Al Jazeera America, expected in April, is a sad conclusion to a project that was by turns uplifting and inspiring as well as troubling and depressing.

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Saudi is Serious About Taking on ISIL Inside Syria

Is Saudi Arabia really preparing to send ground troops into Syria? When Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri said on February 4 that Riyadh was willing to contribute ground troops or special forces to any international initiative to combat ISIL in Syria, most observers dismissed the idea.

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Why Syria Peace Talks Collapsed Immediately

To no one’s surprise, and certainly not everyone’s disappointment, the latest round of peace talks on Syria this week in Geneva collapsed almost before it began.

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What's Behind the Saudi-Iranian Flare-Up?

The January 2 execution by Saudi Arabia of 47 people on terrorism charges and the backlash it provoked have sent shockwaves through the diplomatic and political landscape of the Middle East.

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As Obama looked for an exit, Putin seized his chance

Appearances to the contrary notwithstanding, 2015 was a decisive year and even a turning point on several of the most pressing issues facing the Middle East.

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Who Is a Muslim?

Donald J. Trump’s scandalous proposal that the United States bar entry to all Muslims — though he later clarified his view that American citizens and a few others might be allowed in — raises two fundamental but largely unaddressed questions: Who and what is a “Muslim”? Mr.

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What to Expect from Riyadh's New Islamic Counterterrorism Alliance

The announcement on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia has taken the initiative to form a 34-member “Islamic military alliance” is, in theory at least, one of the most dramatic international counterterrorism moves in many years.

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Riyadh Meeting Small Step Forward on Syria

The meeting of Syrian opposition groups in Saudi Arabia last week was neither an unqualified success nor, as some claim, a “fiasco”.

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Can Riyadh Broker a Syrian Opposition Coalition?

The meeting of Syrian rebel groups in Saudi Arabia, beginning today and running through December 10, marks a major step forward in efforts to create a coherent political front for the opposition as international mediation efforts gain steam.

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Saudi Arabia and ISIL: A False Equation but Troubling Echoes

A growing trope in mainstream Western analysis, which is also present in some parts of Arab and Muslim discourse, casts the kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the political and moral equivalent of the terrorist group ISIL (also known as ISIS, the “Islamic State,” and Daesh).

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Yemen situation will still need a political solution

From the outset, sceptical voices, especially in the West, rushed to deem the Arab intervention in Yemen – led by Saudi Arabia with support from the UAE – a “quagmire”.

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After Paris, Will ISIL Now Become a Global Priority?

The appalling terrorist attacks in Paris by ISIL that killed at least 120 people have drawn strong condemnation from the international community as a whole, including the Arab Gulf states and their leaders.

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Confrontation or Cooperation? Russian-Saudi Relations Hinge on Syria

The reaction of the Arab Gulf states to Russia’s sudden and dramatic escalation in Syria is moving beyond rhetoric and into actions.

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Tunisia shows the power of compromise

On Friday the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the National Dialogue Quartet in Tunisia, a group of organisations that played a critical role in guiding the country towards stability with good governance and accountability.

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Rushin’ to Syria: Riyadh Pledges to Counter Moscow’s Sudden Escalation

The civil conflict in Syria has been a major concern for many Gulf Arab states since the outbreak of the uprising against the Baathist dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad over four years ago.

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A Saudi-American Reset

WASHINGTON — After more than two years of perceived slights and supposed snubs, the new contours of a revitalized but evolving partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia are beginning to take shape.

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The Middle East After the Iran Nuclear Deal

Despite the heterogeneity of interests and perspectives among the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), they share a broad consensus on the nuclear deal agreed to by major powers and Iran.

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King’s Visit Heralds Evolving U.S.-Saudi Strategic Alliance

The visit of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Washington last week was intended by both sides to reinforce the Saudi-U.S.

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Confrontation or Conciliation: How the Nuclear Agreement is Reshaping GCC-Iran Relations

On August 3, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joined a meeting of GCC foreign ministers in Doha after which the Arab Gulf states unanimously and publicly endorsed the international nuclear agreement with Iran.

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The Gulf’s backing of the Iran deal is smart politics

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s public endorsement of the nuclear agreement with Iran is a smart move, but it’s neither a blank cheque for Washington nor the last word from the Gulf states on the international community’s relationship with Tehran.

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Israel must figure out the true cost of occupation

As expected, the Iran nuclear deal is reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East. This article originally appeared in The National.

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Saudi Arabia's New Sunni Alliance

WASHINGTON — If the Iran nuclear deal was an earthquake shaking the Middle East’s strategic landscape, one of the most dramatic aftershocks was the surprising arrival last month in Saudi Arabia of a high-level delegation from Hamas.

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For Gulf Countries, Iran’s Regional Behavior Overshadows Nuclear Deal

The strategic impact in the Gulf region of the nuclear agreement with Iran will hinge on the perceptions of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as to whether or not it helps to curb Iranian “adventurism” and, especially, its support for destabilizing activities in the region.

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The US can live with the status quo, but Iran can’t

The brinkmanship exhibited at the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5 +1 international consortium is breathtaking, and suggests, for the first time in several months, the actual possibility of failure.

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The accusations will begin once a deal is reached

With the international negotiations with Iran entering their final stage, all parties are reading from the same script in terms of managing expectations.

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Qatar Changes Course

DOHA, Qatar — The old joke among foreign policy wonks began thus: After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the world was surprised to discover that it still had two superpowers: the United States and … Kuwait.

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ISIL’s strategy in Saudi is the height of cynicism

ISIL’s two suicide bomb attacks against Shiite mosques in eastern Saudi Arabia in the past week are, perhaps, even more disturbing than its recent territorial gains in Iraq and Syria.

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Narrowing the Gulf: U.S. and GCC Revamp Relations at Camp David Summit

Following several years of strained relations, the U.S.- GCC summit provided the parties with a crucial opportunity to reset their partnership.

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After the Camp David talks, the dialogue has just begun

It may not have been a massive breakthrough, but in defiance of most predictions, last week’s summit meeting between American president Barack Obama and leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries proved a significant success.

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The Gulf and US need a reset – and each other

At this week’s summit at Camp David, both American and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders will be genuinely hoping for a reset in their recently frayed relations.

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Stakes have rarely been higher for US-Gulf relations

The 5th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Consultative Summit held yesterday in Saudi Arabia is one of the most significant and noteworthy ever.

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A United Army for the Arab World?

WASHINGTON — When, at its March summit meeting, the Arab League announced that it intended to create a unified command for a joint Arab military force, eyes rolled.

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As the nuclear deal shows, the old order is changing

Is the United States really willing to use military action to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon? Under Barack Obama that has been the oft-repeated US policy, but several developments allowed the question to fade into the background.

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Royal Reshuffle: Saudi Shakeup Consolidates King's Power

King Salman’s recent shakeup of the highest levels of government in Saudi Arabia has several clear and important themes.

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Anxious Allies: The Iran Nuclear Framework in its Regional Context

The framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program achieved by the U.S.-led P5+1 international coalition in many ways goes further, and is significantly more detailed, than most observers had considered possible.