2022 Outlook
AGSIW's leadership and scholars assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy in 2022.
Regional Affairs
Macron’s Gulf Gamble Pays Off
With the United States seemingly pulling back from the Middle East, French President Emmanuel Macron has advanced France’s strategic interests, with the Gulf acting as a gateway to his political ambitions in the region.
Gulf Rupture With Lebanon Exacerbates Beirut’s Economic Woes
France has sought to calm recent tensions, but the increasing influence of Hezbollah and the shifting focus of Saudi and UAE economic policies elsewhere raises questions of where Lebanon will be able to turn for support.
Bahrain
VAT Hike in Bahrain Points to Fiscal Challenges, Unattractive Choices Government Faced
Even though an increase in the VAT seems the most viable option, higher levels of public buy-in could be secured through greater transparency in fiscal policy.
Latifa Al Khalifa: A Local Curator Showcases Gulf Societies
From collecting wedding photos and exploring the evolution of khaleeji music to using humor to write about how people behave during the holy month of Ramadan, a Bahraini curator brings to light intriguing stories about Gulf societies.
A Conversation With H.E. Dr. Mohamed bin Mubarak Bin Daina, Special Envoy for Climate Affairs, Bahrain
On March 25, AGSIW hosted a conversation with H.E. Dr. Mohamed bin Mubarak Bin Daina to discuss climate-related challenges facing Bahrain and how the kingdom is mitigating these challenges.
Kuwait
Old Playbook for New Kuwaiti Government Signals Further Stasis
An addictive recourse to the same political class and governance scheme suggests Kuwait’s new government, like its predecessors, will prove unable to effectively confront the country’s many challenges.
Despite Crisis-Easing Amnesty, Gridlock Remains a Real Possibility in Kuwait
The emir’s move to grant amnesty to members of the opposition is a start on the path to improve executive-legislative relations, but many issues remain unresolved.
Kuwait’s Ongoing Struggle Against Gender Violence
Grassroots activism demanding an end to gender-based violence in Kuwait has gained national traction and is encouraging more legislative action.
Oman
EU and Oman: Small Steps Toward a Stronger Partnership?
The EU and Oman share a complementarity of means and goals in the Gulf, and a recent aviation agreement is an important step in a trust- and relations-building process aimed at deepening ties.
Young Artists Animate Oman's Quiet Art Scene
Omani youth spearhead national pavilions in Dubai and Venice as upcoming artists Abdulrahim Al Kendi and Mays Al Moosawi draw recognition for their novel explorations of love, religion, and self-acceptance.
Oman's Protesters Seek Jobs and Reform
While the high rate of unemployment among youth sparked recent protests in Oman, the problem now goes beyond creating job opportunities.
Qatar
Qatar’s Shura Council Elections: Incrementally Strengthening Local Politics
The new Shura Council is neither a democratic wand changing Qatar’s political culture nor a pointless exercise. Instead, it is a small evolutionary step in the state’s governance in a more democratic direction.
What to Expect From Qatar's First Legislative Elections
On September 30, AGSIW hosted a discussion ahead of Qatar's first legislative elections.
Electoral Law Sparks Debate Over Qatari Citizenship and Political Rights
While Qatar’s electoral rules may produce a more malleable legislative body, they pose the risk of upending the national unity forged over the course of Qatar’s dispute with its neighboring states.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Walks the Line With Social Opening and Curbing Harassment
The public decency law aims to regulate social behavior in a way that reflects positively on Saudi Arabia’s image, the anti-harassment law is meant to regulate public behavior among individuals in society.
Public Investment Fund Grows, Bets Big on Tech
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund continues to enjoy steady growth aided by technology-focused investments, but the sovereign wealth fund’s 2030 growth target remains distant.
Saudi Arabia’s Patriot Buys: The Political Aspects of Missile Defense
As the kingdom faces mounting insecurity, it has alienated most of its security guarantors and weapons suppliers in the West.
United Arab Emirates
Federalism and Conservatism in the UAE: The Case of Sharjah
As the pace of reforms quicken in the UAE, Sharjah is differentiating itself through its conservatism and independent voice.
UAE Security Forum 2021: U.S.-Gulf Relations in a Changing Region
From December 7-9, UAESF 2021 assessed geopolitical trends in the region.
Zayed University Adopts Experimental Approach, Prompting Skepticism and Support
Students, faculty, and community members are apprehensive about a new interdisciplinary approach pitched by a collaboration between the UAE’s Zayed University and U.S. educational technology developer Minerva.
Iran
Triangular Travails: Iran, the Gulf Arab States, and the United States
Iran and the Gulf Arab states may be sincere in their attempts to reduce regional tensions, but the nuclear crisis casts dark clouds over the region’s security dynamics.
Iran Doubles Down on China to Hedge Against the West
For Iran’s new president, the acceptance into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an important diplomatic achievement as Raisi tries to bolster his image as a statesman and look toward the East for economic and strategic partnerships.
Paradise Lost: An Environmental Tragedy in Iran
Iran’s Khuzestan province has experienced an unprecedented water shortage; yet climate change alone cannot explain how an area endowed with such exceptional natural resources could fail its people so catastrophically.
Iraq
Baghdad's Deepening Reengagement With the Gulf: Hostage to Government Formation
Recent Iraqi governments have pushed for reintegration with the Arab world, but continuation of that trend depends on the next government.
Iraq Protest Movement Defies Odds, Outperforms in Elections
Results from Iraq’s elections show that a determined young generation can organize and win seats, no matter the obstacles placed in the way by a political system most Iraqis lost faith in long ago.
Low Turnout, But Glimmer of Hope in Iraq's Elections
AGSIW's Geneive Abdo spoke with Akeel Abbas, an expert on Iraqi politics and sectarian identities, to discuss the results of Iraq's October 10 parliamentary elections.
Yemen
Under Pressure, the Houthis May Once Again Turn to Iran
If the Houthis believe their military offensive in Marib is in danger, they will likely look to the only real ally they have, Iran.
Yemen: Diplomats Redouble Efforts But Lack of Leverage on Houthis Undermines Impact
Over the year, there were some small steps forward on Yemen. But as diplomatic efforts continue in 2022, there will still be no quick fix to end the war.
The Beginning of the End for the Saudi-Led Coalition in Yemen
UAE, Saudi, and affiliated local forces have begun withdrawing from locations across southern and western Yemen; while couched as “redeployments,” together the moves suggest the Saudi-led coalition is actively looking for an exit strategy.
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Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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