AGSIW Outlook 2021
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Regional Affairs
Prospects for Biden Administration Arms Sales to the Gulf: Revolution or Reversion to Norm?
Biden will likely put weapons sales to the Gulf on the back burner, but, at the end of the day, the administration’s positions on arms sales will reflect continuity, not change.
Pressure Builds on Gulf Countries To Take Climate Action
In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic dealt a significant blow to global climate diplomacy, but the strengthening of a number of trends might signal more momentous changes to come.
Bahrain
Sovereign Data: The Development and Marketing of Bahrain’s Digital Domain
Gulf Arab states like Bahrain cannot preserve the traditional form of their economies indefinitely, but they can influence how their new digital future will unfold.
Death of Bahrain’s Prime Minister Promotes Reformer, But Perhaps Not Reforms
The death of the traditional and uncompromising Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa clears the way for the reformist crown prince to head the government. Still, state and financial security will continue to top Bahrain’s priorities.
Virtual Roundtable With Sheikh Abdullah bin Rashid Al Khalifa
On April 23, AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable with H.E. Sheikh Abdullah bin Rashid Al Khalifa, ambassador of Bahrain to the United States.
Kuwait
Kuwaitis Vote for Change
Kuwait’s elections resulted in a nearly two-thirds turnover in the National Assembly. Still any reform program hinges on the selection of the leadership of Parliament and new government and their ability to forge a common national agenda.
Mudhawi’s List: Advocating for Kuwaiti Women in Politics
Kuwaiti women have played a significant role on the political stage in recent years, but they have yet to reach equal representation in the National Assembly. Mudhawi’s List aims to support women to achieve a more promising future in politics.
Roundtable With Alina L. Romanowski, U.S. Ambassador to Kuwait
Romanowski provided her on-the-ground perspective on Kuwait's response to the coronavirus pandemic, U.S.-Kuwaiti relations, and Kuwait’s role in the Gulf and Middle East.
Oman
Popular Omani Novel Joins Others Exploring Gulf States’ Shift to Modernity
In the year that saw the passing of Sultan Qaboos bin Said, an award-winning Omani novel catches fire in book clubs as it explores the tensions and hopes beneath the surface of the extraordinary changes that the sultan brought to the country.
Oman One Year On
On January 12, AGSIW hosted a panel analyzing the challenges facing, and the strategic responses of, Oman's new sultan.
Oman’s Tradition of Environmental Protection Runs Into Economic Headwinds
The Omani government’s focus on protecting the natural environment and wildlife goes back decades, but a shift in authorities might jeopardize the country’s progress toward advancing its national climate strategy.
Qatar
Gulf Reconciliation Offers Uneven Economic Gains
Economic gains associated with the Gulf reconciliation will be narrow and limited, and any economic momentum should be channeled to tackle longer-term challenges in the region.
With New Gulf Agreement, Will Qatar Change?
Why has Qatar so doggedly pursued policies that so often have such adverse repercussions on its relations with its closest neighbors?
Qatar-Tunisia Ties Spur Competition with Gulf Arab Neighbors
As regional competition intensifies across the Middle East and North Africa, Tunisia is likely to become another strategic fault line.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Delivers Shock to Market With Surprise Oil Output Cut
The new variant of the coronavirus, new lockdowns in several parts of the world, and the slower-than-expected rollout of the vaccine cast doubt on the timing of a recovery that would sustain higher production.
Saudi Arabia Champions “Moderate Islam,” Underpinning Reform Efforts
Moderate Islam can be seen as a comprehensive strategy to tackle the kingdom’s regional and domestic concerns while at the same time reshaping the religious and social scene in line with the leadership’s new sociopolitical objectives.
Saudi Arabia and the G-20
AGSIW hosted a virtual private roundtable to discuss Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its economy and attract investments, its presidency of the G-20, recommendations of the T20 group of think tanks, and the outcomes of this year’s G-20 meeting.
United Arab Emirates
The Evolution of the Armed Forces of the United Arab Emirates
AGSIW will host Athol Yates for a discussion of his book exploring the history of the UAE’s armed forces.
101: Stimulating the UAE’s Grassroots Art Scene
During the coronavirus lockdown, young Emiratis set up a platform to support emerging local artists and engage with a wider audience to inspire curiosity and raise awareness about the local art scene.
UAE Security Forum 2020: Resilient Economies, Resilient Societies
Since its launch in 2016, the UAE Security Forum has played a vital role as a venue where U.S. and regional partners gather to find creative solutions to some of their most pressing common challenges.
Iran
Upcoming Election Offers Little Hope to a Dispirited Iranian Electorate
The economic mismanagement and resistance to change over the past four decades by a succession of regimes has demoralized supporters of conservatives, reformists, and pragmatists alike.
Rather Than Addressing Poverty, Iran Cracks Down on Dissent
The rise of economic hardships, widespread poverty, and increasing use of violence by the Islamic Republic are major grievances dominating state-citizen relations.
Iran’s Post-Sanctions Weapon Purchases: Ambition Collides With Reality
Iran will do as it always has – seek to quietly develop asymmetric capabilities, ideally built domestically, and only purchase the few items that it cannot make hoping to counter key U.S. military capabilities.
Yemen
U.S. Political Transition Weighs Heavily on Yemen Peace Process
Critics worry that the Trump administration’s threat to designate the Houthis as terrorists would also undermine humanitarian efforts, while President-elect Biden is expected to return to more robust diplomacy.
Roundtable With Lise Grande, the United Nations Resident Coordinator for Yemen
On May 4, AGSIW hosted a private virtual roundtable with Lise Grande, the United Nations resident coordinator for Yemen.
Will Reviving the Riyadh Agreement Quell Conflict in South Yemen?
A rigorous dialogue process will be necessary for the Riyadh Agreement to make a real, lasting difference.
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