The crisis between Iran and Israel may be contained for now, but the breakdown in decision making that led to the end of Iran’s “strategic patience” carries risks going forward.
Does a voter boycott matter in a country that is not a democracy, and is there a correlation between lack of electoral participation and political violence?
Should the Islamic Republic utilize the March 1 elections to end effective enforcement of the hijab law, it will remove a source of constant friction between state and society in Iran, but the regime will also lose an instrument of intimidating the urban middle class.
Forty-five years after the revolution and establishment of the Islamic Republic, the regime in Tehran is not only widely distrusted but has also sown the seeds of distrust among Iranians.
Having failed to shape the society to its liking, can the Islamic Republic adapt to a society that is increasingly demanding separation between religion and state?
The Gaza war has demonstrated the strategic utility and resilience of the detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, its longer-term sustainability may depend on unpredictable regional dynamics or other outside factors.
Targeted assassinations of skilled engineers, seasoned commanders, and intelligence operatives are no doubt taking a toll on the IRGC and the Quds Force but not enough for Iran to reconsider its attempt at containing the perceived threat from Israel.
While no immediate threat to the Islamic Republic’s survival, the gradual shrinking of the ruling elites presents a long-term threat to the regime in Iran.
The flare up between Iran and Pakistan may have been snuffed out quickly, but the scars it left on the Pakistani and Iranian security establishments may affect ties going forward.
Efforts to diversify the Saudi economy continued to bear fruit in 2023, although oil is still the dominant economic force.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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