AGSIW Outlook 2021
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
Ali Alfoneh
Senior Fellow
Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
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After the Embargo: Iran’s Weapons Agenda
The lifting of the arms embargo is not likely to result in an Iranian buying spree. But, the Islamic Republic’s arms exports in the post-embargo era may prove as significant as its potential procurements.
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As Iran’s Elite Fall Victim to Coronavirus, Succession Questions Arise
None of Iran’s leadership hopefuls can seize power without IRGC support, and any future leader of the Islamic Republic will be beholden to the IRGC.
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Iran Chooses a Harsher Tone as it Reacts to the Bahrain-Israel Rapprochement
The normalization of relations with Israel provides another grievance Tehran can use to mobilize Bahrain’s Shias against their rulers.
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IRGC Academic Journals Acknowledge Protests Often Driven by Regime Missteps
Authors of articles published by Imam Hussein University of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps see the real challenges the regime is facing from the unprivileged slumdwellers and the politicized middle class and its grievances.
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Iran Reacts Angrily to the UAE-Israel Landmark Agreement
The Islamic Republic has yet to realize taking such a posture toward its Arab neighbors further encourages them to align with Iran’s adversaries.
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IRGC’s Military Drills’ Message Aimed at the U.S. and a Domestic Iranian Audience
The IRGC’s military exercises are little more than ineffective political propaganda.
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Strategic Partnership Agreement With China Represents Lifeline for Iran
The Iran-China agreement appears as a framework for cooperation. Its realization depends on external factors over which Iran has no influence.
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What Iran’s Military Journals Reveal About the Role of Missiles in Strategic Deterrence
A pilot survey of Imam Hussein University academic journals shows the limits of academic freedom in the Islamic Republic, save a few pieces reflecting the Iranian leadership’s view of the role of missiles in strategic deterrence.
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Constants in Iran’s Security Policy Under the Pahlavi Regime and the Islamic Republic
Survival supersedes ideology, and the ruling elites of the Islamic Republic find themselves adhering to the constants in security policy of a predecessor they vilify.