Although demonstrations in Iran seem to be ebbing somewhat, protesters are still defying both the regime and numerous predictions that they would quickly fade. Still, the protest movement has yet to threaten the foundations of the Islamic Republic. The protests and the regime’s brutal response have led to a significant deterioration of relations between Tehran and the West as nuclear negotiations have stalled and a new focus on containment and deterrence has developed. However, dialogue between Iran and its Gulf neighbors has continued amid ongoing de-escalation efforts. But tensions between Iran and Israel are rising, as the new Israeli government seeks to limit Iran’s nuclear and military ambitions, including by launching a drone attack on a weapons production facility in Isfahan.   

To what extent do the protests limit Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders? Have they made the regime turn inward and limit support to regional proxies? Or are they reinforcing the sense that proxy groups in Arab states are a key element in domestic legitimation as well as regional clout? How do Iran’s Gulf neighbors perceive the unrest? Will Iran’s regional adversaries seek to take advantage of the protests to further weaken the regime? How do the Gulf signatories of the Abraham Accords balance their growing ties to Israel with efforts to de-escalate regional tensions?