Bargaining over the resources of the government is set to remain just one expression of the struggle for authority in Iraq. Actual sovereignty is likely to continue to be a coercive negotiation backed by various substate militias’ force of arms and financial interests.
Iraq finally has a president, and the political parties understand that at this juncture, they don’t have the luxury of time for negotiations over government formation.
There are a host of serious internal political conflicts as well as legal, financial, and geopolitical hurdles to increasing Kurdish gas exports, prompting questions regarding whether such aspirations are realistic.
Neutral journalism in Iraq is stifled by political parties that own media outlets and by armed elements using violence to silence scrutiny and criticism.
Poor organization and outsized financial support for pilgrimage blows back, inviting stinging criticisms of Raisi regime’s administrative competence and priorities.
Rivals’ use of force to counter Muqtada al-Sadr’s escalation in the Green Zone forces him to end demonstrations in Parliament, but Iraq’s political impasse continues.
Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces will obstruct any reforms in Iraq that jeopardize the status quo and the militias’ political influence and hold over the state’s coffers.
Iraq’s Parliament, where a sit-in of Sadr supporters continues, has become the epicenter of the intra-Shia power struggle, perpetuating the country’s political crisis.
Iran’s supporters appear to be using a carrot-and-stick approach to co-opt Sunni politicians, aiming to fragment the Sunni camp in any future elections and to make it easier to pressure its leaders.
On May 31, AGSIW hosted researchers and guests from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats to present findings and insights into political violence across the globe for 2021.
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