Executive Summary

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, Abu Dhabi has made a fundamental shift in oil policy since 2016. Abu Dhabi traditionally managed its oil and gas resources cautiously and conserved hydrocarbon wealth for future generations, but the energy transition is reshaping its strategy. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has restructured its major onshore and offshore concessions, launched two bid rounds to license much of its acreage, and partly privatized elements of its downstream, midstream, and drilling segments. It plans to raise oil production capacity from 4.2 million barrels per day to 5 mb/d by 2030, and it has launched a new futures contract for its Murban crude. The United Arab Emirates’ growth agenda is at odds with continued production restraint, and there are important implications for OPEC.

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