Water security is a critical concern for the Gulf Arab states due to the region’s severe water scarcity. However, water security involves more than merely ensuring water supply, as water needs span various aspects of human and economic demands. This includes balancing water use for food security, supporting economic diversification goals, and mitigating environmental harm resulting from increased supply, such as the impacts of desalination. Together, these factors create a complex set of tradeoffs across multiple dimensions that must be managed holistically to provide true long-term sustainable solutions that go beyond increasing supply. A sustainable approach requires balancing environmental, economic, and social factors to meet both current and future water needs.

Beyond the Conventional Approach to Water Security

The concept of security has expanded since the post-Cold War era, shifting from state centric and military focused to also encompass the well-being of individuals. This shift enabled the securitization of environmental issues, particularly water. To a certain extent, the securitization of water can be attributed to the necessity of water for human life, and securitizing it gives a sense of urgency to address the global water crisis and the effects of climate change. This urgency has encouraged countries to act to protect their water resources.

The modern concept of water security emphasizes the complex relationship between humans and water resources. However, there remains no singular definition of water security or common understanding of what it means to be water secure. The term “security” often leads to a narrow perception that focuses solely on the availability of water resources. This approach to water security is frequently adopted by international agencies, such as the United Nations, and typically focuses on setting standards for the amount of water required to meet health, livelihood, and ecosystem needs. However, scarcity is rarely the sole issue causing water insecurity. Beyond water availability, there are three other primary dimensions of water security: ensuring that water infrastructure is resilient to climate change; balancing and meeting sectoral demands, such as providing sufficient water to ensure food security; and promoting sustainability, which aims to balance human water needs with environmental preservation. This comprehensive approach acknowledges that water security extends beyond the mere availability of water.

Gulf Water (In)security

In the Gulf, water security has been a key policy focus. At the regional level, the Gulf Cooperation Council, with the agreement of all member states, implemented the GCC Unified Water Strategy 2016-2035. At the national level, member states such as the United Arab Emirates are implementing their own plans, such as the UAE’s Water Security Strategy 2036.

Both policies primarily focus on meeting water demand and ensuring a reliable supply for the region’s inhabitants, but they neglect other crucial aspects of water security. Even at the academic level, various studies on water security in the region focus primarily on availability. They define water security simply as the ability to meet water demand, overlooking the complex factors influencing water security.

Gulf policies focused on water availability have succeeded in ensuring access for Gulf populations to water despite high natural scarcity. Water is readily available to support municipal and economic needs as well as agricultural demand. However, while these policies have succeeded in making water accessible, they may also be contributing to water insecurity in the region.

There are two primary water resources in the Gulf: fossil groundwater and desalinated seawater.

Groundwater is the main water resource in the region in terms of quantity. The Gulf countries have overexploited, and continue to exploit, their groundwater reserves to meet the ever-rising water demand. With low recharge rates and continuing quality degradation, overexploitation of groundwater is causing severe water stress, creating long-term vulnerabilities for the population that depends so heavily on it.

As the quality of groundwater in the region deteriorates, Gulf countries are increasingly turning to desalination to address water shortages, providing the region with a crucial source of freshwater. Gulf countries presently hold the world’s largest capacity for desalination.

Both primary water resources in the region are vulnerable to climate change. For instance, desalination plants in the Gulf are typically located by the sea, making them vulnerable to rising sea levels. Furthermore, extreme temperatures adversely affect groundwater quality, while the persistent rise in sea levels exacerbates the already poor quality of groundwater in the region.

The adverse effects on the environment caused by the overexploitation of groundwater and desalination process are in turn exacerbating human security challenges. For instance, the increasing salinity of the sea from desalination’s brine discharge endangers marine life, which is a critical source of nutrition for the region’s inhabitants who already face significant food security challenges. Additionally, desalination requires a significant amount of energy, contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to air pollution, exacerbating environmental pollution and worsening air quality. Groundwater overexploitation will eventually deplete the resource entirely, negatively impacting food security.

These examples demonstrate the vicious cycle in the Gulf countries, where policies aimed at meeting water demand have led to issues that, in turn, have jeopardized long-term water security. This highlights the need to reconsider these approaches.

Finding the Balance: The Key to Gulf Water Security

A significant challenge to water security in the Gulf is the increasing demand for water. In the region, annual per capita water use is 560 liters per day, compared to the global average of 180 liters per day. If this rate of consumption persists, the Gulf will need to increase water supply capacity by 77% by 2050. This rise in demand will likely lead to greater reliance on desalination, exacerbating the environmental challenges associated with the desalination process. The increasing demand can be attributed to various factors, such as population growth and changes in lifestyle driven by improvements in living standards. However, several policies adopted by Gulf countries to achieve other goals have further aggravated the complex dimensions of water security in the region. For example, 75% of water consumption in the Gulf comes from agriculture, making it historically the most water-intensive sector in the region. Nonetheless, many Gulf countries still rely on food imports for 80% to 95% of their food needs. While food security is indeed a critical issue for the Gulf countries, the immense water usage for agriculture exacerbates water insecurity. Some progress has been made, with countries investing in unconventional agricultural methods, such as vertical and urban farming, both of which reduce water consumption. And some experts have argued that diversifying food imports could enhance food security, which in turn might reduce domestic water demand for agriculture.

Gulf governments’ ambitious economic reform plans are also increasing demand for water in the region. Since the discovery of oil, Gulf countries have collectively embarked on a mission of rapid socioeconomic development. As Gulf countries seek to diversify their economies away from hydrocarbons, significant demand for water is coming from new or growing sectors, such as the water-intensive tourism sector. While tourism has undoubtedly flourished, accounting for 12% of the UAE’s gross domestic product and reflecting the success of economic diversification measures, it is highly water intensive. For example, hotels in Dubai, an international tourism hotspot, have contributed to making the UAE one of the highest water consumers globally, with features such golf courses and swimming pools, which have substantial water demands and high evaporation rates. Furthermore, on average, tourists in Dubai consume between 650 liters and 1,250 liters of water per stay, whereas tourists in Germany use approximately 350 liters per person per visit.

Raising awareness about increasing demand and incorporating new technology could help reduce consumption and contribute to improving water security in the region. For example, Dubai has implemented a hotel management strategy to conserve electricity and curb water consumption, including installing water flow reducers in hotels.

Rethinking Water Security

The Gulf’s approach to water security has allowed countries in the region to meet water demand, despite water-scarce conditions. However, this approach, and the increasing reliance on desalination and overexploitation of conventional water resources, has led to consequences that pose a threat to the future of water security in the region.

Rethinking Gulf water security requires an approach that goes beyond merely increasing water capacity. Addressing water demand must also involve reducing consumption in ways that promote sectoral balance. This shift calls for fewer desalination plants and reduced overexploitation of groundwater, ultimately supporting the long-term sustainability of water security in the region.

True water security in the Gulf lies in finding a balance – not only between supply and demand but also among competing priorities, such as food security, economic diversification, and minimizing environmental impacts. This new thinking around water security can offer a path forward that is sustainable, resilient, and aligned with the region’s long-term development goals.