President Donald J. Trump's decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions has injected a much higher level of volatility into oil markets, with prices scaling new heights to levels not seen since 2014. In reality, the disruption to Iranian exports and oil trading flows will be relatively limited, but against a backdrop of stronger global oil demand, declining stock levels, and the upcoming peak summer driving and cooling season, markets are unnerved. Equally, the broader implications for escalating regional tensions are expected to inflate the geopolitical price premium in markets going forward. The potential for conflict is squarely on the radar screen of everyone invested in the region, including oil executives.
These remarks were delivered on April 19, 2018 at the International Oil Summit in Paris by AGSIW Board Member Ibrahim Al-Muhanna.
Grand reform plans underway in the Gulf region, typified by Saudi Arabia’s National Transformation Program and Vision 2030, give an impression of fast movement.
OPEC may need to maintain crude oil supplies at current lower levels for longer than planned, as surging U.S. shale oil dominates global oil markets for the next several years, according to a new report from the IEA.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will begin his first visit to the United States as presumptive heir to the throne; it comes at a crucial time, with Saudi social and political changes and economic reform gaining steam and Trump administration policies toward Iran growing more confrontational.
Global oil prices opened the new year on a high note, reaching three-year peaks by mid-January, spurred on by robust winter demand growth, supply outages, and the strong commitment by OPEC and its non-OPEC partners to maintain production curbs through the end of 2018.
OPEC and its non-OPEC allies reached an agreement at their November 30 meeting in Vienna to formally extend production cuts to the end of 2018 with the deal subject to review at a biannual meeting in June.
OPEC ministers are set to mark the one-year anniversary of their historic production pact with their non-OPEC counterparts on November 30 with oil prices up by a sharp $10 per barrel (/bbl) on average so far this year and oil revenue higher by a significant 25 percent, far outpacing the relatively modest supply cuts by producer countries.
Geopolitical tensions in Iraq and Iran are supporting already strong oil markets led higher by seasonally robust demand and production cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC alliance.
Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.Learn More