For the OPEC+ Oil Producers, a Year of Caution Paid Off
As 2024 comes to a close, oil markets remain under a cloud of uncertainty shaped by geopolitical risks, weaker-than-expected Chinese demand, and an evolving energy transition landscape.
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Tougher Sanctions on Iran May Help Other OPEC+ Producers
The global oil market will be challenging for OPEC+ members in 2025, although the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports under the Trump administration may create space for production increases by other OPEC+ members.
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China's Rise in Iraq's Energy Sector: From Newcomer to Dominant Player
While Iraqi leaders consistently emphasize the importance of Western investment in their energy sector, their actions instead are increasing Iraq’s dependence on Chinese markets and oil firms.
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Lower Oil Prices Challenge Saudi Fiscal Policy
The sharp decline in oil prices raises difficult questions for OPEC+ and, if sustained, will have important implications for Saudi Arabia’s fiscal policy.
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Oil Markets Steady Despite Growing Insecurity in the Middle East
Oil flows are redirected as war and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea disrupt traffic.
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IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast for 2024 but OPEC Remains Bullish
While geopolitical tensions have the oil market “on edge,” the IEA expects a well-supplied market amid weaker demand.
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OPEC and IEA at Odds Over Long-Term Oil Demand Outlook
The divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.
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Global Oil Prices Spiral Higher After Saudi Arabia and Russia Extend Supply Cuts
A substantial drawdown on global oil stocks is forecast for the fourth quarter amid record oil demand, accelerating the rise in oil prices to the $100 per barrel threshold.
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OPEC+ in a Battle Royal to Drive Oil Prices Higher but Macroeconomic Headwinds Thwart Progress
Saudi Arabia extends steep “voluntary” production cut through August but a weaker-than-expected Chinese economic recovery weighs heavily on market sentiment.
The Obstacles to Getting to “Yes” With Iran
The ongoing negotiation process between the United States and Iran will be complex and volatile – while some of the most central issues might be soluble, sanctions issues might prove intractable.
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Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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