Iran’s relations with the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq are likely to turn from bad to worse. So much is clear after Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib’s recent warning to neighboring states against assisting Israel in operations against Iran. Iranian media reports preceding the intelligence minister’s statements suggest high probability of Iranian retaliation in the near future: 

• July 23: The Intelligence Ministry website reported, “A network of Mossad elements, which penetrated Iran from the Kurdistan region to engage in terrorist and sabotage operations in sensitive centers in Iran … were arrested.”  
• July 24: Noor News, unofficial mouthpiece of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, disclosed that the network had penetrated Iran several months ago and was investigating targets in Isfahan province. 
• July 27: In its second report on the subject, the Intelligence Ministry website claimed arrested individuals were members of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, which the ministry described as “a proxy of the Zionist regime.” Komala dismissed the accusation in a statement released on its website the same day. 
• July 28: In a Telegram post, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cyber Force warned: “Although the recent operation was discovered and foiled by the unknown soldiers of the Imam of the Era,” a reference to Intelligence Ministry personnel, “punishing the aggressors is on the agenda, because the redlines of Iran’s national security were crossed, planned by Mossad, executed by terrorist groups based in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and aided by the Iraqi Kurdistan leadership.” 
• July 29: According to the Iranian Students’ News Agency, the Iranian intelligence minister, attending the provincial security council meeting in Iranian Kurdistan, warned “States that prepare the ground for initiatives against the Islamic Republic of Iran … and states that help the enemies of the Iranian nation should await retaliation.” Khatib also singled out the Komala Party as “a mercenary of the Zionist regime.” 

Islamic Republic officials often warn their adversaries of retaliation. While such warnings seldom materialize in action against militarily superior actors, such as the United States and Israel, lesser powers often absorb the full weight of Iran’s retaliatory measures, as seen in previous Iranian attacks against the Iraqi Kurdistan region.