On November 14, AGSIW hosted a workshop examining the future of U.S. Gulf relations, featuring remarks by Shaikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, undersecretary for international affairs of the kingdom of Bahrain.
Session 1: “Maximum Pressure and Maximum Resistance: Where’s the Confrontation with Iran Headed?”
Since President Donald J. Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, Washington has pursued an intensifying “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, largely in the form of harsh new sanctions. Iran has responded with “maximum resistance,” starting in the form of low-intensity, and sometimes deniable, military provocations. However, with the recent attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, signs are growing that both policies are maxing out with little room for further escalation without inviting unwanted consequences – including a conflict neither side desires. What comes next in this confrontation? Is there a plausible path to significant de-escalation? And what are the long-term prospects, particularly for the Gulf Arab countries, of escalation, de-escalation, or a continuation of the status quo of contained confrontation? Is a new security architecture required to facilitate dialogue and manage tensions in the Gulf? And what might this Gulf security framework look like?
Remarks by H.E. Shaikh Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Undersecretary for International Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Bahrain
Session 2: “The Gulf in a Multipolar World”
Military and security cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council states is of continuing importance for the United States, but recent developments in U.S. defense posture have caused some Gulf leaders to question the nature and durability of this cooperation. Additionally, as Gulf Arab states claim a new regional leadership role, they are establishing ties with other centers of power, regionally and globally, diversifying relationships and reducing their dependence on the United States. The Gulf states are finding particularly appealing opportunities in Russia, and among the countries of East and South Asia, building ties on the political, economic, and military fronts. Why are Gulf countries looking beyond the United States, and what do the direction and rate of this change tell us about evolving global geopolitical and economic dynamics? What do these trends tell us about the future of the United States’ role in the Gulf, the wider Middle East, and its longstanding relations with Gulf partners?
