The Ramadan Cease-Fire in Yemen
An agreement is likely still a long way off in Yemen, but at least some of the parties are starting to talk, listen, and, ever so slowly, compromise.
An agreement is likely still a long way off in Yemen, but at least some of the parties are starting to talk, listen, and, ever so slowly, compromise.
Seven years since their intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE remain mired in a disaster, and they’ll need U.S. assistance to end the war.
The length of the war and the associated costs have led the UAE to recalibrate its position in Yemen, but influence in southern Yemen remains a key part of its regional strategy.
Houthi missile attacks on the UAE and U.S. military facilities expose a fragile Middle East calm.
If the Houthis believe their military offensive in Marib is in danger, they will likely look to the only real ally they have, Iran.
As the kingdom faces mounting insecurity, it has alienated most of its security guarantors and weapons suppliers in the West.
Over the year, there were some small steps forward on Yemen. But as diplomatic efforts continue in 2022, there will still be no quick fix to end the war.
UAE, Saudi, and affiliated local forces have begun withdrawing from locations across southern and western Yemen; while couched as “redeployments,” together the moves suggest the Saudi-led coalition is actively looking for an exit strategy.
With the Houthis making gains in their offensive on Marib, and anti-Houthi alliance fragmenting, the United States is out of options on Yemen.
As divisions among competing parties and the conflict persist, the economy is spiraling, leaving the majority of Yemenis without access to public services and without the means to meet their basic needs.
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