Saudi Arabia’s Big Bet in Yemen
Saudi Arabia is looking for an exit from Yemen. While a Saudi withdrawal is unlikely to end Yemen’s civil war, the Saudis are likely to proceed if Iran can keep the Houthis onside.
Saudi Arabia is looking for an exit from Yemen. While a Saudi withdrawal is unlikely to end Yemen’s civil war, the Saudis are likely to proceed if Iran can keep the Houthis onside.
Saudi-Houthi backchannel talks will not succeed in generating a comprehensive political settlement unless the concerns and grievances of all Yemeni factions as well as the region's long-term stability are given due consideration.
Iran has leverage, influence, and history with the Houthis. As Saudi Arabia tries to extract itself from Yemen, Tehran will utilize all three to prolong the conflict.
The Houthis will be more vulnerable after the full withdrawal of Saudi and Emirati forces than they have been at any time during the war.
The United States wants to end the war in Yemen, but given its lack of leverage over the Houthis, the few policy options it does have will likely make the situation worse.
At the moment, the Houthis believe they have more to gain from war than peace.
Recent fighting in Shabwa highlights lack of unity of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, threatening its ability to present a common front against the Houthis.
If the United States wants to avoid a disaster scenario in Yemen, it should shift its focus from the failed attempt to resurrect a single Yemeni state to laying the groundwork for a divided Yemen.
Yemen’s fragile truce is being extended, but there is still a massive amount of work needed to bring the conflict to an end.
Although the entry of women into the Gulf’s diplomatic and military ranks was slower than elsewhere, the region is in the midst of a sweeping transformation, largely due to top-down policies and social shifts.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
Learn More