The Yemen Conundrum
The United States wants to end the war in Yemen, but given its lack of leverage over the Houthis, the few policy options it does have will likely make the situation worse.
The United States wants to end the war in Yemen, but given its lack of leverage over the Houthis, the few policy options it does have will likely make the situation worse.
At the moment, the Houthis believe they have more to gain from war than peace.
Recent fighting in Shabwa highlights lack of unity of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, threatening its ability to present a common front against the Houthis.
If the United States wants to avoid a disaster scenario in Yemen, it should shift its focus from the failed attempt to resurrect a single Yemeni state to laying the groundwork for a divided Yemen.
Yemen’s fragile truce is being extended, but there is still a massive amount of work needed to bring the conflict to an end.
Yemen’s new presidential council was made in Saudi Arabia and backed by the UAE, which means it may struggle to find legitimacy on the ground.
An agreement is likely still a long way off in Yemen, but at least some of the parties are starting to talk, listen, and, ever so slowly, compromise.
Seven years since their intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE remain mired in a disaster, and they’ll need U.S. assistance to end the war.
The length of the war and the associated costs have led the UAE to recalibrate its position in Yemen, but influence in southern Yemen remains a key part of its regional strategy.
Houthi missile attacks on the UAE and U.S. military facilities expose a fragile Middle East calm.
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