According to regional affairs analyst Hamzeh Salehi, Saudi Arabia’s ability to play the United States, China, and Russia against each other and extract concessions from all three is a success. He argues that Iran’s anti-Americanism, on the other hand, is a failure because it has cost Iran any similar opportunity and reduced it to being a dependent of Russia and China. Salehi’s analysis is sharp, ruthless, increasingly common in reformist media, and probably shared by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its political allies in President Ebrahim Raisi’s Cabinet. The question is whether those with government power are willing to do something about Iran’s perilous predicament.
- August 25: In a piece in reformist Entekhab News, Salehi wrote:
- “Ever since the imposition of comprehensive sanctions against Iran in the 2010s and the country being subjected to Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, Iran’s geopolitical position has gradually eroded, is facing manifold problems, and is losing one opportunity after the other. It is as if the world is ignoring Iran when it comes to vital geoeconomic projects.”
- “In this changing world, many countries, including the littoral states of the Persian Gulf … are stabilizing their foreign policies by engaging in new working relationships without losing their existing relations” with great powers. “For small and midsize states, this policy protects their national interests and increases their maneuverability amid the global mayhem … For example, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates … and other countries, most of which are allies of the United States and the West, are lining up for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization … In doing so, these countries are attracting the attention of great powers, such as the United States and China.”
- “Since Iran is not, under any circumstances, ready to abandon its anti-American policies, the United States has lost hope in drawing Iran away from Russia and China. Even more importantly, China is also aware of this and does not find it necessary to give Iran political or diplomatic concessions to keep Iran on its side … Due to the policies Iran has adopted, it has no other choice but to remain on Beijing’s side. It is in this light that we can easily understand China’s and Russia’s insults to Iran’s territorial integrity,” referencing both states’ support for the UAE’s claims on the islands of Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa.
- “Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, by adopting a flexible and balanced policy, and through tactical alignment with China, has not only managed to attract the attention of the United States but has also made the Chinese get closer to Saudi Arabia in order to reduce America’s influence in the region … Iran, on the other hand, by pursuing a single track and inflexible policy, has harmed its own maneuverability and geopolitical worth. Saudi Arabia’s flexibility and tactical maneuvers based on its national interests have managed to extract great concessions from both parties.”
- Salehi concluded: “Under such circumstances, reviving the” Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal “and a more balanced foreign policy can, to a great extent, change the situation. Under such conditions, China will be compelled to engage in a greater effort to keep Iran on its side. In such a scenario, Iran will not only get sanctions lifted and extract concessions from the West, but it will also significantly improve its bargaining position with China and Russia.”
