The COP28 United Nations climate summit, held in the United Arab Emirates in late 2023, marked a major breakthrough when the parties reached an agreement to fully operationalize a loss and damage fund after nearly 30 years of negotiations. This fund is designed to help vulnerable countries deal with the effects of climate change that go beyond what people can adapt to, such as the disappearance of properties due to rising sea levels or the loss of lives and homes during extreme floods. While the fund has received around $800 million, talks at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan that began November 11 will be critical to scale up the fund.
The Gulf region, which is one of the world’s most water-stressed areas, has recently been exposed to frequent extreme rainstorms and floods. In April, severe rainstorms swamped the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. At least 21 people lost their lives in Oman and four in the UAE. In Dubai, rainfall on April 15 broke a 75-year record for daily precipitation, forcing Dubai International Airport – the world’s second busiest – to cancel hundreds of flights.
Over the past 20 years, Oman has been struck by at least seven cyclones. Most recently, Shaheen in October 2021 caused at least a dozen fatalities and an estimated $500 million in insured damages. Climate studies indicate that such events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming years. This historical exposure to extreme climate events has served as a persistent wake-up call, prompting responses from both communities and governments, however, more can be done to mitigate risks.
Nature Meets Human-Induced Risks
In arid and semiarid areas, such as the Gulf region, the topography is generally dominated by hard surfaces. At times of heavy rainfall, hard surfaces contribute to increased surface runoff and impede natural absorption, leading to rainwater ponding on the surface, rather than soaking into the soil, or rapid runoff as occurred during the latest extreme storm. Infrastructure in the Gulf and urban developments are dominated by hard surfaces that lack effective drainage systems, compounding the runoff challenge presented by the hard natural surfaces, aggravating flooding. And in many cases, houses and roads are built in floodplains and flood-prone areas in valleys connecting mountains with the coastal plain that are mostly dry throughout the year, except during the heavy rainfall periods. Because of this human component, some of the economic damage and loss of life in April, and during other extreme weather events, could possibly have been avoided.
While regional governments have made progress in weather forecasting, enabling early warning systems and early evacuation, gaps remain in public awareness and action, so there has continued to be tremendous loss. On the one hand, the series of cyclones and floods that have hit the region over recent years has created a general awareness surrounding the risks imposed by heavy rain. On the other, it remains popular among the public to go out and enjoy watching the flow of water in the valleys, especially in the rural areas. There is limited public awareness on the best practices during natural disasters, such as floods or heavy rainfall. For instance, 21 people were killed, including 11 students, in Oman during heavy rainfall in April because their parents believed it would be safer to pick them up and drive them home from school on the day of the flood. However, all of them were trapped and killed in the flooding. In another incident, a man died from getting shocked by lightning when it hit a tree he was using as shelter from the rain.
Government-coordinated emergency responses also remain weak in the region. The loss of life following the latest extreme storm revealed several shortcomings in governmental coordination: Lack of clear guidance and leadership, bureaucratic rivalries among various government departments, lack of clarity over jurisdictional boundaries, and insufficient communication and information sharing often affect effective interagency coordination. Suad Al-Manji, the head of risk management at the Ministry of Education in Oman, said “Due to the delay of the National Center for Emergency Management, institutions were late in taking the necessary measures, such as the Ministry of Education, which was late in the decision to suspend work, and as a result of this, some governorates were late or did not take the appropriate action at the appropriate time despite the presence of warnings from the ministry the previous night in this regard.” A disconnect between centralized and decentralized decision making was another factor. Ministries, such as the Ministry of Education, could have reduced risks if authorized to make early decisions on school closures.
Responses to Climate Disasters
The rollout of climate action plans and committees is notable across all six Gulf Cooperation Council states. Bahrain’s Supreme Council for Environment oversees climate and environmental strategies. Kuwait issued the National Adaptation Plan 2019-2030. Qatar released its National Climate Change Plan in 2021. Oman adopted the National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change for 2020-2040. Saudi Arabia launched the National Environment Strategy in 2018. And the UAE issued the National Climate Change Plan of the UAE 2017-2050.
Some Gulf countries have also developed strategies focused on climate resilience and disasters. In March, Bahrain adopted an Updated National Emergency Strategy under the Interior Ministry to be implemented by the National Civil Emergency Management Committee. Saudi Arabia has a National Disaster Response Plan led by the National Defense Council, which is comprised of 20 members representing different sectors.
In 1988, Oman was one of the first Gulf countries to establish a National Committee for Natural Disasters, which was reformed when Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said issued a decree to amend the Civil Defense Law in 2020, and the National Centre for Emergency Management was formed. It is the overarching authority that coordinates eight permanent working groups and sectors, including the Early Warning Center, Medical Response and Public Health sector, and Public Authority for Civil Defense. Following Shaheen, Oman established the National Emergency Fund in 2021.
The UAE established a National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority in 2014 to deal with natural disasters such as earthquakes, heavy rain, floods, lightning, sand storms, and fog. In the wake of the April floods, the ruler of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum approved an over $8 billion integrated drainage network project to collect rainwater in Dubai, aiming to increase the capacity of rainwater drainage in the emirate by 700%.
Suspension of in-person school and work attendance and transitioning to online learning and work has also been a common practice across the Gulf states in periods of heavy rainfall, which was initially prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.
Society’s engagement is also increasingly notable in managing the aftermath of disasters. “Society in Oman has learned from disasters triggered by cyclones,” said Saqar Alzaabi, an Omani expert in disaster management. Drawing on past experiences, Omani communities have demonstrated a proactive approach to post-disaster recovery, including conducting street cleaning, establishing fund donations, and providing food and shelter to support those affected.
Developing Proactive, Long-Term Strategies
While these disaster response efforts are valuable, to reduce the number of fatalities and severity of recurring damage, Gulf governments should shift their strategies from disaster response to preemptive resilience strategies by identifying and mitigating risks before disasters occur. Climate-related disaster strategies should not be treated in isolation from development plans. Institutional building and funding should be integrated within mid- and long-term economic development strategies, with community engagement placed at the core.
During COP28 in Dubai, parties adopted a communique stating that all countries would contribute to “the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.” For the Gulf countries, where fossil fuels play an outsized role in the economy, this means not only preparing for the potential decline in oil demand and prices due to the global transition away from fossil fuels but also preparing future economies to withstand the severe effects of climate change, such as extreme weather events. Failing to align today’s economic decarbonization efforts with proactive measures to address climate risks could jeopardize the Gulf’s decarbonization and economic diversification efforts.
