Climate change is accelerating at an unprecedented rate, scientists are warning, causing a variety of hazards and major disruptions in the lives of millions of people around the world.
Not only are the Gulf countries no exception to this new global reality, their already harsh climate conditions are about to get quickly worse. By some estimates, the region will be mostly unlivable by 2050. However, when it comes to the climate crisis and the Gulf Cooperation Council states, discussions almost exclusively focus on economic diversification away from oil. Very little is being said about the changing patterns of heat waves, increasing ocean storms, and loss of regional biodiversity and even less about the panoply of life-altering effects those changes will have on local populations.
It is not surprising that the GCC non-oil sector development has received so much attention. On the one hand, it is in the world’s long-term interest that Gulf countries move away from oil and gas production sooner rather than later: The longer fossil fuels are burned, the harsher the consequences will be. The continued supply of cheap fossil fuels coming from the region has a direct effect on the rate at which countries around the world are willing to take the painful steps of transitioning to clean energy. On the other hand, while GCC states recognize that the key to long-term stability is a diversified economy, they have no interest in rapidly transforming their abundant resources into stranded assets. Oil rents were at the core of state-building processes in the Gulf, and countries in the region cannot easily disentangle regime stability from oil rents. Preserving a consistent stream of oil revenue allows Gulf governments to maintain the implicit social contract operative since the first decades of state formation. Therefore, their short- to medium-term interest lies in maintaining or even increasing the rate of production to keep the oil rents coming while they slowly transition away from an oil-based economy. It is a perhaps more sharpened, starker version of the same reckoning countries across the globe are having to grapple with.
With the stark acceleration of climate-related phenomena, such as rapidly rising temperatures, drought, increasing salinity of the Gulf (with damaged marine life and biodiversity), the social and political stability of the entire region could come under threat. Such phenomena already happening could rapidly become catastrophic, primarily for the young population. People under 18 are the most likely to suffer from climate-induced health problems, and extreme heat and air pollution disproportionately affect children. This is a particularly pressing concern considering the demographics of the region: in 2021, more than half of the Gulf’s population was under 25.
Whether it is water and food scarcity, in- and out-migration pressures, or infrastructure damage due to extreme weather events, the pace at which Gulf governments are willing to implement pro-climate policies might not be fast enough to mitigate those problems. Current GCC targets for the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix remain relatively modest: 10% by 2035 for Bahrain, 30% by 2030 for the United Arab Emirates, 10% by 2020 for Oman, 30% by 2040 for Saudi Arabia, 15% by 2030 for Kuwait, and 20% by 2030 for Qatar. In addition, part of the goal of Gulf states to transitioning to renewables for domestic energy production is to increase hydrocarbon exports to oil-hungry developing countries. So, even if they manage to diversify energy sources for domestic markets, their emissions linked to oil production will likely remain unchanged over the next few decades. The UAE recently announced its plan to expand oil production capacity from 4.5 million barrels per day to 5 mb/d by 2027, investing heavily in upstream exploration and development.
With the UAE hosting the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, beginning in November, it is an opportune time to evaluate the most pressing concerns Gulf governments and citizens will need to pay attention to:
1. Water and Food Security Under Significant Stress
Water supply is the biggest, most pressing concern for the Gulf states. The Gulf is one of the most arid regions in the world, combining very low precipitation rates with very high evaporation rates. Shallow aquifers and deep aquifers provide the vast majority of the region’s water needs. Over the past 10 years, socioeconomic changes in the region have tremendously increased demand on already strained water resources, while lower precipitation levels have made shallow aquifers less reliable. In 2021, desalinated water was providing as much as 20% of the region’s water needs. However, desalinating water is a capital- and energy-intensive process that further increases the region’s emissions as well as the fiscal burden on the Gulf states. It also increases the salinity of the waters of the Gulf. Over the next 20 years, Gulf water supplies will come under increased pressure due to fast-paced population growth and scarcer rainfall. These changing water supply patterns also affect agricultural production in the region and further compromise food security.
2. Heat Waves and Their Impact on Economic Activity
The Gulf region is at high risk of increased and prolonged heat waves. Maximum summer temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4 C by 2050, pushing urban thermometers past the dreaded 50 C (122 degree-Fahrenheit) threshold.
Under a high emission scenario, summer temperatures in the GCC are expected to climb as high as 60 C (140 F), making outdoor conditions unlivable during the summer. This also means that labor migrants, on whom infrastructure projects depend, will not be able to work outdoors between June and September, resulting in an estimated net gross domestic product loss of as much as 12.2% by 2050. This is already happening: Reports on COP28 preparations are underlining the terrible heat conditions under which migrant workers are currently working to build conference facilities as temperatures hit 42 C (107.6 F) in Dubai in September.
Not only do heat waves have a devastating impact on human health and economic development, they also negatively affect electricity infrastructure. In August, power networks throughout the Middle East were put under tremendous strain. In Iran and Iraq, for example, energy supply fell short in keeping air conditioning units, refrigerators, and other appliances and electronic devices working, leading to social unrest in Baghdad. Although not a new development in Iraq, energy strain, as countries in the region redouble efforts to peg air conditioning and refrigeration to rapidly rising temperatures, is likely to become an increasingly daunting challenge.
3. Rising Sea Levels and Ocean Storms Affect Coastal Infrastructure
Over the past few years, ocean storms and higher-than-usual tides are giving people in the coastal cities a taste of the future. By 2050, coastal cities in Saudi Arabia are expected to experience regular flooding. By 2100, studies suggest that the sea level will have risen globally on average by 1 meter, deeply affecting coastal development in the Gulf. In Saudi Arabia, the effect will be felt both on the Gulf and Red Sea. Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has heavily invested in tourism, with many projects developed along its shores. However, a 1-meter rise in sea level means that nearly 350 square miles of Saudi coastal land along the Red Sea shore and nearly 240 square miles along the Gulf shore would be permanently under water. According to expert studies, the UAE would lose more than 100 square miles of coastal land, while Qatar would lose more than 50 square miles.
Increasingly more frequent ocean storms will also cause regular damage to offshore infrastructure, as will coastal flooding. Coastal lands host the vast majority of the Gulf population and the vast majority of their economic infrastructure, such as ports, power plants, desalination facilities, and oil and gas export facilities.
4. More Frequent Dust and Sand Storms
Dust and sand storms have long been a hallmark of the region. However, their frequency and intensity have been steadily increasing over the past decade, and they have caused dramatic disruptions for the population and economy. Dust and sand storms are both safety and health hazards, leading to reduced visibility and low air quality, grounding air traffic and causing car accidents and respiratory issues. They also damage solar farm facilities.
5. Destruction of Marine Ecosystems
The Gulf and Red Sea are home to some of the most famous coral reefs in the world, which has made the region a much-loved destination for coral reef tourism. However, higher sea temperatures and dredging development projects have deeply damaged these ecosystems, putting them at risk of extinction. This, in turn, endangers prospects for coastal tourism. It also has far-reaching consequences for marine life and local populations’ livelihood. The death of coral reefs leads to the collapse of local marine ecosystems and the economic activities that depend on a rich and abundant marine life.
At COP28 in the UAE, countries will showcase their concrete actions toward fulfilling the Paris Agreement climate goals in the first ever global stocktake. They will need to show their good faith and willingness to implement climate-preserving policies. While the energy sector will be front and center in the conversations of civil society and climate-activist groups, other sectors will also be under heightened scrutiny.
The UAE has restated its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. Some of it neighbors have also announced zero-emission target dates in the 2050s and 2060s. However, the pace of climate change, projected to be felt more intensely in the Gulf than in many parts of the world, could well require revisiting these targets and other efforts focused on addressing climate change and the energy transition. COP28 will highlight the dramatic challenges and choices countries face and the tough balancing acts they will engage in. As the science, economics, and long-standing climate realities make clear, Gulf countries will be at the forefront in having to address these challenges.
