Three Arab countries have hosted United Nations Conference of the Parties climate summits in the last decade: Morocco (COP7 in 2001 and COP22 in 2016), Qatar (COP18 in 2012), and Egypt (COP27 in 2022). The next climate summit is due to be held in the United Arab Emirates, the 28th conference since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change treaty was negotiated in 1992.

Since then, the narrative has changed as the impact of climate change is being felt more acutely around the world. With recent temperatures rising to record levels in much of the northern hemisphere, the U.N. has warned that the world has entered an era of “global boiling” and has called for an immediate phaseout of fossil fuels that are widely blamed for the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. This means that COP28 will have to deliver a resolution that accelerates the energy transition to cleaner fuels.

The UAE and the COP28 Agenda

Skeptics doubt that the UAE, as a major producer of hydrocarbons, can act as an impartial host. The choice of Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber as COP28 president-designate has also been questioned, since he is the CEO of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. However, he is also the chairman of clean energy producer Masdar, one of the biggest investors in renewable energy both in the UAE and internationally.

The summit, to be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, will have to build on what was achieved at COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt in December 2022 and drive it forward with accelerated action. The forthcoming summit will continue formal negotiations on key climate issues, including setting up the loss and damage fund, a historic breakthrough agreement of COP27 that requires wealthy countries to compensate developing countries that have been impacted by climate change. The institutional arrangements to establish the fund are expected to be finalized at COP28. Also on the agenda is the doubling of adaptation finance, which remains short of its target. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, parties to the UNFCCC set a goal of mobilizing $100 billion annually by 2020 from developed to developing countries to support adaptation measures. However, by 2020, developed countries had pledged only $83 billion per year.

The Middle East, which falls under the “Global South” designation, is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The UAE, which is not considered a developing country, is expected nonetheless to prioritize climate adaptation, reflecting the special climate adaptation needs for the “Global South,” whose contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is very small.

The transition away from fossil fuels will be central to the debate at COP28 and has been one of the most contentious issues at recent conferences. In 2021, the final resolution at the end of COP26 in Glasgow included for the first time a reference to the “phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” The term “phasedown” was seen as a compromise amid opposition by some countries to the use of “phasing out” regarding unabated coal power.

The fossil fuel debate during COP27 included calls for a phaseout of all fossil fuels not just coal. But the proposal to include this language in the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan was rejected by the Egyptian president, who argued that fossil fuels do not cause climate change but rather emissions from burning fossil fuels are to blame. In the final form, the Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan retained the same “phase-down” language as the previous COP, calling for “accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” 

“The phasedown of fossil fuels is inevitable,” Jaber said in June on the sidelines of U.N. climate talks in Bonn, a shift from the position adopted at COP27 and the UAE’s own previous stance. “Our aim should be focused on phasing out fossil fuel emissions” he stated in May at the 14th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, placing an emphasis on emissions rather than phasing out fossil fuels, a common position of the Gulf oil producers who have, like Egypt’s president, argued that greenhouse gases are emitted on the consumer end.

But the European Union has said that it will push for a global pledge at COP28 to phase out unabated fossil fuels “well ahead of 2050,” the target set by much of the developing world and several Gulf countries to attain carbon neutrality. The U.N. has also called for the phasing out of coal and other fossil fuels to avert a climate “catastrophe.”

Gulf Climate Mitigation

Apart from debate on the role of fossil fuels, at COP28 all eyes will be on how the UAE and its neighboring hydrocarbon-rich states will tackle the implementation of climate mitigation policies. Because of economic and population growth, industrial expansion, rising living standards, and a sixfold increase in energy consumption since the 1980s (faster than in any other part of the world) driven in part by higher demand for cooling, the Gulf states recognize the importance of developing alternative energy sources, such as renewable energy.

The scale of, and investment in, renewable technologies in the region has increased quickly over the last decade, with the latter spiking from total installed capacity of 17 megawatts in 2011 to 5,131 MW in 2022. Most recently, the Gulf states have taken strides to develop clean hydrogen – both green (produced from splitting water using electrolysis, with electricity derived from renewables) and blue (produced from gas with carbon capture and storage).

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have each set a net-zero emission target by or around mid-century. Further, three national oil companies have set their own net-zero commitments to be achieved by 2050: Oman’s Petroleum Development Oman, the UAE’s ADNOC, and Saudi Aramco. ADNOC has since advanced its net-zero target to 2045.

In their respective nationally determined contributions submitted to the UNFCCC, four Gulf states have set new greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. The UAE submitted its third update of its second NDC in July, setting an absolute greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 19% below 2019 levels by 2030, replacing its previous commitment to reduce emissions 31% below the business-as-usual scenario for 2030. Oman’s second NDC, submitted in July 2021, also contained a 7% greenhouse gas emission reduction target relative to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030, compared to its first NDC, which targeted a 2% greenhouse gas emission reduction target. Similarly, Qatar’s updated NDC, submitted in August 2021, contained a 25% greenhouse gas emission reduction pledge by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s updated NDC, submitted in October 2021, includes an enhanced greenhouse gas emission reduction target that aims to reduce emissions by 278 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually by 2030, double its emission reduction target of 130 MtCO₂e in its first NDC, submitted in 2015. Kuwait aims to reduce its emissions equivalent of 7.4% of its total emissions in 2035 on a voluntary basis.

Gulf Climate-Focused Institutions

To meet these targets, Gulf states have established institutions to oversee the governance and management of climate-related challenges.

Bahrain, in 2007, established a Joint National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by the Supreme Council for Environment, to oversee climate issues, including mitigation and adaptation measures.

Kuwait set up a National Committee on Ozone and Climate Change, chaired by the Environment Public Authority with representatives from the General Secretariat of the Supreme Council for Planning and Development, Ministry of Oil, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Ministry of Electricity and Water, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and General Directorate of Civil Aviation. In 2019, Kuwait launched the National Adaptation Plan 2019-2030.

Oman launched a national strategy in 2019 to mitigate and adapt to climate change (2020-40), overseen by the Environment Authority. In 2022, it announced a national hydrogen economy strategy, overseen by the Ministry of Energy. In November 2022, Oman’s government released National Strategy for an Orderly Transition to Net Zero, to operationalize its net-zero emission pledge.

Qatar, in 2021, formed an Environment and Climate Change Ministry to address climate-related issues and approved the National Climate Change Plan to inform climate-conscious decision making across sectors.

Saudi Arabia, led by the Ministry of Energy, put forward the concept of the circular carbon economy and placed it at the center of its climate mitigation plan. Through the circular carbon economy, Saudi Arabia seeks to leverage all available greenhouse gas emission reduction techniques, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, projected capabilities in nuclear energy, hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage, rather than restricting the production of specific sources of energy, like oil. The circular carbon economy approach will be implemented through ongoing initiatives and programs, including the Saudi Arabia Green Initiative, National Renewable Energy Program – with a target to generate 50% of the kingdom’s electricity from renewables and 50% from natural gas by 2030, and the Saudi Energy Efficiency Program.

The UAE was the first Gulf state to announce a national climate strategy, in 2017. The UAE was also the first to link its climate strategy with its economic development plans; UAE Green Agenda 2015-2030 was established as the overarching implementation framework. In 2016, the UAE established the Council on Climate Change and Environment to oversee the implementation of the country’s Green Agenda.

Regional Cooperation

Regional climate cooperation has also gained momentum. Perhaps the most notable pact is the Middle East Green Initiative, which aims to plant 40 billion trees across the region and reduce carbon emissions by 60% with the help of clean hydrocarbon technologies. Led by Saudi Arabia, a number of regional centers and programs were also announced as well as a first-of-its-kind financial fund to invest in two regional initiatives. The first seeks to find clean fuel solutions for cooking, and the second is working to establish a Regional Investment Fund for Circular Carbon Economy technology solutions. The estimated total investment in these two initiatives is around $10.3 billion to support these initiatives, to which Saudi Arabia has committed to contribute $2.5 billion over the next 10 years.

The Gulf Arab states have also joined a number of international climate-related initiatives and play an active role in climate diplomacy. The Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum, established in 2005, aims to improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology. The Clean Energy Ministerial, Mission Innovation, and the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative are voluntary groups of CEOs representing 30% of global oil and gas production companies who are collaborating in efforts to find climate solutions for oil producing countries. In April 2021, Saudi Arabia and Qatar established the Net Zero Producers Forum along with Canada, Norway, and the United States – countries that together produce 40% of the world’s oil and gas. Furthermore, all the GCC states are participants in the Global Methane Pledge, which seeks to collectively reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030, relative to 2020 levels.

Expectations for COP28

COP28 is expected to create momentum for the Gulf states to advance their climate action ambitions and climate policy implementation. This comes as the first global stocktake – a mechanism to measure countries’ progress in achieving their climate commitments – begins in 2023 as the UAE hosts COP28. This will push countries to pursue ambitious climate commitments and adhere to current pledges, given the requirement of the 2015 Paris Agreement for countries to conduct regular and transparent reporting on the implementation and achievement of their national climate targets.

The plethora of events to be held before and after the COP meetings, including the Middle East and North Africa Climate Week 2023, will also play an important role in raising public awareness of climate change challenges and solutions in the region. For government and business actors, this will spark entrepreneurial opportunities to take an active role in regional climate action.