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Kurdistan’s Gas Exports: Reality or Mirage?

There are a host of serious internal political conflicts as well as legal, financial, and geopolitical hurdles to increasing Kurdish gas exports, prompting questions regarding whether such aspirations are realistic.

Yerevan Saeed العربية switch to english
Kurdistan’s Gas Exports: Reality or Mirage?
Workers at the facilities of the Kurdish oil company KAR, in Erbil, Iraq, July 21. (REUTERS/Ako Rasheed)

Executive Summary

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and the rapprochements between Turkey and Gulf Arab countries have rekindled the Kurdistan Regional Government’s interest in increasing Kurdish natural gas production and expanding exports to Turkey and potentially the European Union. In pursuit of gas deals, senior Kurdish officials have recently visited Turkey, the Gulf Arab countries, and Europe to discuss the potential of Kurdish gas as an alternative to Russian gas. If developed, Kurdish gas could assist both Turkey and the EU in diversifying their natural gas sources and enhance their energy security in the long run. Additionally, it could help federal Iraq lessen dependency on gas imports from Iran. However, there are a host of serious internal political conflicts, as well as legal, financial, and geopolitical hurdles to increasing Kurdish gas exports, prompting questions regarding whether such aspirations are realistic.

The expansion of Kurdish gas production capacity and exportation of gas to the international market will require a political deal with Baghdad, investment from Gulf Arab countries, and security guarantees from other stakeholders, such as Turkey and the EU. This paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities for Kurdish natural gas production expansion and exportation to Turkey and Europe.

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Yerevan Saeed

Yerevan Saeed is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and the Mustafa Barzani Scholar of Global Kurdish Studies at American University’s School of International Service. He is a TEDx speaker and former lecturer at the University of Kurdistan Hewler. He received his PhD from the Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution at George Mason University.

The views represented herein are the author’s or speaker’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSIW, its staff, or its board of directors.

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