The historic August 13 agreement by the United Arab Emirates and Israel to institute a process of normalization may usher in a new era in Israeli-Gulf Arab relations. Brokered by the Trump administration, the agreement breaks the long-standing Arab consensus, based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, that diplomatic relations with Israel require progress toward a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Instead, the UAE went forward based on assurances that Israel would shelve contemplated annexation in the West Bank. While many details remain to be worked out, normalization is proceeding, with the first civil aviation passenger flights between the two countries already scheduled.

The agreement raises several crucial issues. What role did the United States actually play in convincing the UAE to take this historic step? What’s in it for all sides? Are other Arab countries likely to follow the UAE’s lead? Does this agreement end hopes for a two-state solution because Palestinians have lost their last significant leverage with Israel? Or, by forestalling annexation, does it throw an unexpected lifeline to a potential future two-state agreement? Finally, how are the regional targets of this new entente, most notably Iran and Turkey, responding?