The Viability of a Partitioned Yemen

Over the past year and a half, the war in Yemen has turned into a low-intensity conflict, punctuated by periodic clashes that have done little to alter the lines of control. In the northern highlands, the Houthis – a Zaydi Shia militia group – maintain control, much as they have since taking the capital of Sanaa in September 2014. In the south, a coalition of forces under the Presidential Leadership Council, which sometimes fights the Houthis and sometimes one another, is in charge. Neither the Houthis nor the Presidential Leadership Council are capable of imposing their will on the rest of the country. Saudi Arabia has held direct talks with the Houthis in recent months and appears more eager than ever to find an exit from Yemen. All of this raises an important question: What does a postwar Yemen look like? If the war were to end today, the likely result would be the partition of Yemen into a North Yemen ruled by the Houthis and a South Yemen under the control of the Presidential Leadership Council. But are either the Houthis or the Presidential Leadership Council capable of governing a viable, peaceful, and independent state? This two-part series looks at the challenges facing both groups as they seek to move from ruling in war to governing in peace.