Experts consulted by reformist Shargh Daily, citing economic, political, and geopolitical factors, expressed optimism about the future of Iran-Pakistan relations following Iran’s January 16 strikes against alleged Baluch militant bases in Pakistan and Pakistan’s retaliation January 18. However, they appear to disagree on whether the source of the threat is Taliban-ruled Afghanistan or the United States.

• January 23: In a piece on the recent crisis between Tehran and Islamabad, Shargh Daily columnist Abd al-Rahman Fath-Allahi wrote:
  • “Following a phone conversation, the ministers of foreign affairs of Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran agreed their ambassadors would return to their posts by January 26, 2024 … This is happening following unprecedented tension between the two countries in the wake of the Iranian military’s attack on Pakistani soil and Islamabad’s retaliation … However, within 24 hours after its military action on Iranian soil, the Pakistani government decided to end the crisis with Tehran and restore diplomatic relations with Tehran.”
  • “Regional affairs expert Karim-Davoud Moeeni considers the economic and social conditions in Iran and Pakistan, their political systems, and impending elections in both countries as factors encouraging restraint.” Quoting Moeeni, Shargh continued: “Tensions with Iran would have strengthened New Delhi and the Taliban … Such a conflict would also have engulfed Pakistani Shias.”
  • Quoting a second regional affairs expert, Nader Ahmadvand, Shargh wrote: “The Pakistanis are now fully aware of Iran’s sensitivities and redlines with regard to terrorist groups in the Baluchistan region. Separately, Islamabad is not planning to subject the Baluchistan region to control. The region constitutes half of Pakistan’s territory, and controlling it requires exorbitant economic, human, and logistical resources, none of which are available to Islamabad … Deploying forces along the shared Iran-Pakistan border also means reducing military forces along the shared India-Pakistan border.”
  • Shargh also quoted regional affairs expert Mohammad-Ali Naebi, who said: “Since the Americans brought the Taliban to power in Afghanistan … they have tried to instigate acts of terrorism in the Baluchistan region in the shared Pakistan-Iran border area.” However, apparently contradicting himself by placing blame on the Taliban rather than the United States, Naebi said: “It is now clear to Islamabad that the Afghan Taliban is provoking the Pakistani Taliban and other radical groups” to take action against Pakistan, and “Iran also knows that terrorist attacks” on Iranian soil, “in particular in Kerman, have enjoyed logistical, training, human, and ground support from Afghanistan … which can only have been guided by the Taliban.”