The crisis between Iran and Israel may be contained for now, but the breakdown in decision making that led to the end of Iran’s “strategic patience” carries risks going forward.
With a mix of condemnation, maneuver, and strategic calculation, Gulf countries are navigating the current crisis.
As long as the nature or degree of Iran’s involvement in the conflict between Israel and Hamas is disputed, Tehran will continue to reap rewards.
A recently signed security- and economy-focused pact marks the latest development in the United States’ close, long-standing partnership with Bahrain.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani’s predecessors laid the groundwork for strong economic ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and he now appears poised to take relations to the next level.
The role of Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in the Iranian-Saudi talks is a strong indication of the supreme leader’s direct influence over Iran’s foreign policy decision making.
Saudi Arabia is looking for an exit from Yemen. While a Saudi withdrawal is unlikely to end Yemen’s civil war, the Saudis are likely to proceed if Iran can keep the Houthis onside.
An immensely wealthy, pivotal energy supplier seeks to consolidate its regional position and retool its leadership ambitions.
Policy differences with the United States over Ukraine and Syria will continue as Gulf states’ strategic diversification and growing confidence in regional preeminence create a new Gulf norm for significant policy divergence, balanced by calculated security convergence.
As 2024 comes to a close, oil markets remain under a cloud of uncertainty shaped by geopolitical risks, weaker-than-expected Chinese demand, and an evolving energy transition landscape.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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