The crisis between Iran and Israel may be contained for now, but the breakdown in decision making that led to the end of Iran’s “strategic patience” carries risks going forward.
The Gaza war has demonstrated the strategic utility and resilience of the detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, its longer-term sustainability may depend on unpredictable regional dynamics or other outside factors.
Targeted assassinations of skilled engineers, seasoned commanders, and intelligence operatives are no doubt taking a toll on the IRGC and the Quds Force but not enough for Iran to reconsider its attempt at containing the perceived threat from Israel.
Iran and its allies appear to be engaged in symbolic actions against Israeli and U.S. forces rather than openly provoking a war, but these theatrics still risk igniting a regional war all involved parties want to avoid.
While there are ways Hezbollah could become involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, neither Hezbollah nor Iran appears interested in a wider regional war.
Iran may look to emulate Saudi Arabia in its efforts to reorient its foreign policy and establish a more balanced position in relations with the great powers of the East and West.
A thaw with Egypt may help an economically besieged Iranian government rattled by popular protests boost its regional standing.
With Sultan Haitham’s planned trip to Tehran to mediate between Iran and the United States, the Omani leader appears to be following his predecessor’s path as a regional interlocutor.
Despite efforts to present Iran’s supposedly strong ties with African states, Iran has failed to forge robust partnerships on the continent.
Recent developments in Bahrain-China ties reflect less alignment and more coincidence of interests.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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