During a highly publicized visit to the port city of Chabahar, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi took aim at Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders, demanding that they release water from the Helmand River, known as the Hirmand River in Iran, to reach the people of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who accompanied Raisi, explicitly threatened “uncooperative” Taliban leaders with use of “instruments of pressure” at a separate press conference. One Iranian expert suggested one of those instruments may be Iranian officials holding a public meeting with the Afghan opposition as a means of intimidating the Taliban; another expert suggested Iran might offer active support to Afghanistan’s armed Shia militias. Iran’s demands are rooted in the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Water Treaty, which, according to Iranian experts, no Afghan government has implemented. Iran’s relations with the neighboring Taliban regime are already complicated, and climate change and water scarcity are likely to further complicate them.

• May 17: The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Amir-Abdollahian, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s ambassador to Afghanistan, and Rasoul Mousavi, the Foreign Ministry’s South Asia director, would visit Sistan and Baluchistan province to “follow up on Iran’s rights to the waters from the Hirmand River.”
• May 18: While visiting Chabahar, Raisi delivered a major speech on water scarcity and Iran’s rights to waters from the river. According to Mashregh News, he said: “The government is engaged in an effort to channel water from the Sea of Oman to the eastern parts of Iran, but this project will take a long time … In the meantime, the people of Sistan and Baluchistan are, as enshrined in agreements, entitled to the waters from the Hirmand River … I am telling the rulers of Afghanistan not to take this issue lightly. This is serious. I am warning them to respect the water rights of the people of Sistan and the people of Sistan and Baluchistan province as soon as possible … It is said time and again that the dams” in Afghanistan “don’t have much water or have sediments. The rulers of Afghanistan should allow our experts to investigate the matter. Should they confirm that there is a scarcity of water, we shall have no objections, but we will not allow the rights of the people to be violated.”
• May 18: During his visit to Chabahar, Amir-Abdollahian said, as quoted by Tasnim News: “An expert delegation from our Ministry of Energy, accompanied by the Afghan party, should visit the Kajaki Dam to investigate the water level and determine whether the water will reach the Sistan region if it is released … Based on our agreement, this is the natural right of Sistan, and we are pursuing this matter with great seriousness … If necessary, instruments of pressure, too, will be used against those rulers of Afghanistan who are not cooperative.”
• May 19: A Taliban spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, in a statement published by Farda-ye Eghtesad, said: “The Islamic Emirate is committed to delivering on its obligations under the agreement … However, Afghanistan and the region are stricken by drought, the water level has decreased, and many provinces and regions are suffering from scarcity of water.” In an indirect reference to Raisi’s statements, Mujahid’s statement continued: “Iran’s continued demands for water and certain statements quoted in the media are inappropriate.”
• May 19: In an official statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry dismissed the Taliban’s claims: “The 1973 agreement between the governments of Iran and Afghanistan concerning water from the Hirmand River … legally defined Iran’s rights to the waters … Afghanistan is obliged to secure Iran’s rights and not engage in any action that partially or totally bereaves Iran of its rights … Over the course of the past year and a half … despite insisting on meeting their obligations, the rulers of Afghanistan have not in practice acted upon their obligations … Claims of drought and reduced water levels in the Hirmand River have not been verified by experts from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the position of the rulers of Afghanistan is therefore illegal and unacceptable.”
• May 20: In an interview with Shargh Daily analyzing the latest statements from Iranian and Taliban officials concerning Iran’s water rights, Karim-Davoud Moeeni, a West Asia expert, said: “Based on the 1973 agreement, Iran’s rights are to 820 million cubic meters” of water from the Hirmand River “annually … which no Afghan government has ever delivered … Due to the scarcity of water in the region and in the world … all governments, whether in Afghanistan or Turkey, are using water for political and diplomatic leverage.” Moeeni said he does not expect Iran’s warnings to the Taliban leaders to be effective, as they fundamentally believe the Hirmand River is theirs and do not recognize bilateral agreements. More specifically, he said, “As the economy and livelihood of the people is deteriorating” in Afghanistan, the Taliban regime “is not likely to deliver on Iran’s rights without compensation.” Moeeni added that the Taliban is “using dams to channel water to opium poppy fields … and as long as the Taliban has no alternative sources of income, this situation will continue.”
• May 20: Responding to the veiled threats from Iranian officials, Abd al-Hamid Khurasani Naser Badri, a Tajik Taliban commander, stated, in a tweet that has since been deleted: “We are totally hungover, as we have not fought a war for long. May God bless us with a war with the race of the Zoroaster, so we can teach them a lesson. Inshallah!”
• May 21: Mehdi Qamishi, an Iranian water engineer, in an interview with Entekhab News, suggested Iranian officials meet Ahmad Masoud, a prominent leader of the Afghan opposition, as a pressure point against the Taliban.
• May 22: Fararu News Agency quoted an unnamed regional expert, who suggested support to Afghanistan’s armed Shia militias as a pressure point against the Taliban regime.
• May 25: Nameh News released a short interview with Esmaeel Kowsari, a parliamentarian and veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, on Iran’s water rights: “We can’t let go of this issue and say, ‘God willing, it will be solved.’ But it will not be solved on itself, and we must enter the arena and certainly will reach a result … We have fundamentally not recognized the Taliban and are now pursuing the issue in a way so we can get our rights.” Kowsari also accused previous Iranian Cabinets of incompetence and indolence with regard to Iran’s water rights.