Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW; Associate Director, Institute for Future Conflict, U.S. Air Force Academy
Gregory D. Johnsen is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is currently the associate director of the Institute for Future Conflict at the U.S. Air Force Academy.
Johnsen has been a Peace Corps volunteer in Jordan, a Fulbright Fellow in Yemen, and a Fulbright-Hays Fellow in Egypt. In 2013-14 he was selected as BuzzFeed’s inaugural Michael Hastings National Security Reporting Fellow where he won a Dirksen Award from the National Press Foundation and, in collaboration with Radiolab, a Peabody Award. He has a PhD from Princeton University and master’s degrees from Princeton and the University of Arizona. Johnsen is the author of The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia (W.W. Norton), which has been translated into multiple languages. From 2016-18 he served on the Yemen Panel of Experts for the United Nations Security Council. In 2019, he served as the lead writer for the United States Institute of Peace’s Syria Study Group. His writing on Yemen and terrorism has appeared in, among others, The New York Times, The Atlantic, and Foreign Policy.
Trump’s executive order redesignating the Houthis a foreign terrorist organization threatens direct military action against the Houthis, raising the possibility that the United States could get sucked into another long-term conflict in the Middle East.
For the United States, the Houthi threat in the Red Sea should be treated as part of strategic competition instead of merely a local or regional challenge.
No matter who wins the presidency in November, the United States will need a strategy that allows it to protect free and open trade in the Red Sea without becoming bogged down in an open-ended conflict in Yemen.
In the short term, increasing economic pressure on the Houthis is likely to prompt them to reignite attacks on Saudi Arabia, while in the long term it could make reuniting Yemen into a single state all but impossible.
How should the United States respond to an escalation in Houthi attacks when its current approach isn’t working?
Tackling Yemen’s root problems won’t be easy, quick, or cheap, which is why no one has really tried.
On March 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the Houthi challenge to maritime security in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
While not yet successful, the Biden administration’s “deter and degrade” approach may prove to be an adaptable approach that can be modified into a winning strategy.
The Houthis see the attacks in the Red Sea as part of a broader political project that goes back decades.
The United States appears overly confident that military strikes will put the Houthi threat back in the box.
The United States has not developed adequate responses for dealing with hybrid groups like the Houthis.
If the Houthis are attacking Israel, their local rivals will be less inclined to attack them.
On October 26, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the prospects for the end of the conflict in Yemen.
For all the Houthis’ success during the war, it is unclear if they can transition into an effective government.
Would South Yemen be a state for Southerners, or would it be the anti-Houthi Yemeni state?
Regardless of how or when the current conflict in Yemen ends, child soldiers are not simply going to disappear.
Now that the war against the Houthis appears to be nearing an end, the head of the Southern Transitional Council is making his move to push for Southern independence.
If the international community wants to ensure that Yemen’s war actually ends when the peace deal is signed, it needs to rebuild the country’s economy.
Saudi Arabia is looking for an exit from Yemen. While a Saudi withdrawal is unlikely to end Yemen’s civil war, the Saudis are likely to proceed if Iran can keep the Houthis onside.
Iran has leverage, influence, and history with the Houthis. As Saudi Arabia tries to extract itself from Yemen, Tehran will utilize all three to prolong the conflict.
The Houthis will be more vulnerable after the full withdrawal of Saudi and Emirati forces than they have been at any time during the war.
The United States wants to end the war in Yemen, but given its lack of leverage over the Houthis, the few policy options it does have will likely make the situation worse.
At the moment, the Houthis believe they have more to gain from war than peace.
Recent fighting in Shabwa highlights lack of unity of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, threatening its ability to present a common front against the Houthis.
If the United States wants to avoid a disaster scenario in Yemen, it should shift its focus from the failed attempt to resurrect a single Yemeni state to laying the groundwork for a divided Yemen.
Yemen’s fragile truce is being extended, but there is still a massive amount of work needed to bring the conflict to an end.
Yemen’s new presidential council was made in Saudi Arabia and backed by the UAE, which means it may struggle to find legitimacy on the ground.
An agreement is likely still a long way off in Yemen, but at least some of the parties are starting to talk, listen, and, ever so slowly, compromise.
Seven years since their intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE remain mired in a disaster, and they’ll need U.S. assistance to end the war.
The length of the war and the associated costs have led the UAE to recalibrate its position in Yemen, but influence in southern Yemen remains a key part of its regional strategy.
If the Houthis believe their military offensive in Marib is in danger, they will likely look to the only real ally they have, Iran.
UAE, Saudi, and affiliated local forces have begun withdrawing from locations across southern and western Yemen; while couched as “redeployments,” together the moves suggest the Saudi-led coalition is actively looking for an exit strategy.
With the Houthis making gains in their offensive on Marib, and anti-Houthi alliance fragmenting, the United States is out of options on Yemen.
Yemen’s fragmentation will have severe repercussions for U.S. foreign policy, regional stability, and, ultimately, international security.
On July 15, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the top issues and challenges facing the incoming United Nations special envoy for Yemen.
The next U.N. special envoy for Yemen will be uniquely positioned to spearhead a grand bargain that might be the international community’s last chance to reconstitute Yemen as a single state.
On Wednesday April 28, AGSIW hosted a discussion on efforts to end the conflict in Yemen.
With Yemen’s increasingly fractured political landscape, the longer the war continues, the harder it will be to resolve.
The United States has at its disposal a number of diplomatic carrots and sticks that, if wielded effectively, could compel the Houthis to negotiate in order to end the war in Yemen.
