Civil Nuclear Energy in the Middle East: Demand, Parity, and Risk

Highlighting the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, this paper studies the security policy implications of civil nuclear programs and assesses the prospects for indigenous nuclear industries and relationships with international suppliers.

Robert Mason and Gawdat Bahgat Apr 11, 2019 العربية

The under-construction Barakah nuclear power plant near Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (Arun Girija/Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation/WAM via AP)

Executive Summary

Civil nuclear programs look set to become a feature of the energy landscape in the Middle East as states seek to balance growing domestic energy demands with a diversification away from fossil fuels. This paper studies the security policy implications of more civil nuclear installations being built and operated in the region and assesses the prospects for indigenous nuclear industries and relationships with international suppliers, with specific reference to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. It concludes with recommendations aimed at enhancing international nonproliferation norms and controlling safety and security risks. The paper draws on dependency theory and realist assumptions, such as threat perception and alliance choices.

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Robert Mason

is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and a fellow with the Sectarianism, Proxies and De-sectarianisation Project at Lancaster University.

Gawdat Bahgat

is a professor of national security affairs at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies.

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