In late October, residents of the coastal border areas between Oman and Yemen braced themselves as Tropical Cyclone Tej made landfall. Predictions varied for the ensuing damage, but one thing was clear: Oman was prepared to weather the storm and Yemen was not. In the days preceding the cyclone, Oman evacuated populations residing in its path, set up emergency shelters, and issued a two-day public holiday to minimize impact. With little state capacity to take similar measures, Yemenis living in the eastern governorate of Mahra suffered considerable losses. Around 10,000 locals were displaced as flooding destroyed roads and swept away crops and livestock. The cyclone is a recent example of how the absence of a functioning state exacerbates Yemen’s environmental disasters, compounding the humanitarian crisis caused by years of conflict.

Yemen consistently ranks among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, including tropical storms and flooding as well as droughts and sudden outbreaks of disease. These vulnerabilities can be attributed in large part to the country’s ongoing conflicts and weakened economy. Over the past decade, a vicious cycle has emerged in which the damage caused by extreme weather events is worsened by a lack of government capacity and public services. Unmitigated natural disasters reduce the availability of resources, including food, clean water, and arable land, which leads to further instability and conflict.

Yemen’s agriculture and natural environment are under threat due to its deteriorating state institutions and economy, which can be attributed to the lack of a central authority and rivaling governments. Ministries and government offices tasked with managing land and water resources are understaffed or nonoperational. Key infrastructure, such as irrigation systems, dams, and roads, has gone years without necessary maintenance to withstand seasonal rains. Sewage systems are likewise neglected, contributing to the spread of disease and the contamination of water resources, especially during floods. Lack of effective regulation or government oversight has also led to water and soil pollution in areas such as Hadramout, where there is oil extraction.

Years of conflict have destroyed Yemen’s economy, already one of the weakest in the region before the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and the 2015 Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. The devaluation of the Yemeni rial has led to increases in prices of basic goods. This has resulted in reduced purchasing power for most Yemenis, including farmers and other agricultural workers. Farming equipment, fertilizer, pesticides, seeds, and livestock have all become prohibitively expensive. Diesel – which is essential for planting, irrigating, harvesting, and selling crops – has become unaffordable, forcing many farmers to either sell portions of their fields for quick income or abandon them altogether to pursue other forms of work, sometimes as fighters on the frontlines of Yemen’s multiple conflicts. When farmland is sold, it is often converted to residential properties – a process that decreases the availability of local produce and leads to the desertification of soil ecosystems that normally help protect against flooding.

Recent research conducted by ARK Group found that Yemenis are acutely aware of these challenges. In one stark example, half of respondents in rural areas of the southern Lahj governorate reported that desertification was either a major problem or one of the greatest threats to society. Many of these respondents felt there is no effort or ability from the state to address desertification. Periods of drought are often followed by torrential floods, which destroy property boundaries between agricultural fields and lead to disputes among landowners.

Yemenis across the south said that conflicts over land and water are turning increasingly violent. Yemen – one of the most water-scarce countries in the world – is seeing an uptick in disputes, as climate change and poor resource management have depleted groundwater levels and led to unfair distribution of water. Resolution of these disputes is becoming more difficult due to the absence of security, inadequate record keeping, and an overburdened court system. In an interview, an agricultural engineer from Aden said, “There are recurring conflicts over land … The causes include the absence of a state that can deliver justice and support to victims and the lack of local authorities to intervene in disputes. The solution would be stability, security, and a state presence that empowers local agricultural offices.”

These challenges further undermine an already strained relationship between Yemenis and their local officials. Ineffective governance has led to a lack of regulation, support, and basic services. Many Yemenis feel they must fend for themselves to stave off a range of environmental and security threats. Sometimes, this means taking up arms to defend their land from attempted seizures by militias or individuals. Property disputes also arise among tribes. If these are not resolved quickly, small disputes risk leading to a cycle of retaliatory violence.

Attempts by donors and international organizations to address climate and environmental issues can risk exacerbating local tensions and depleting existing resources if they are not undertaken in a sustainable and conflict-sensitive manner. For example, the distribution and unregulated use of solar-powered pumps in parts of Yemen – which aim to reduce Yemeni farmers’ dependence on diesel –has led to severe overextraction of the country’s groundwater and increased inequalities between large and small farms. Efforts to provide targeted support to specific communities can lead to perceptions of donor favoritism; this is especially notable in interventions aimed at supporting internally displaced persons, as local residents often express frustration that their needs are just as great as those who have been displaced but do not receive the same support.

Many of Yemen’s climate and agricultural experts agree that the country’s environmental disasters would be manageable if not for the ongoing conflicts and state dysfunction. Indeed, the threats posed by Yemen’s seasonal floods could be transformed into a partial solution for its dwindling water supply if investments were made to capture and divert floodwaters. Difficulties faced by farmers could be offset by state support, including subsidies on agricultural supplies and training on sustainable farming practices. Moreover, the presence of a functioning judicial system and security apparatus would help address property disputes and reduce conflict. But progress on these fronts requires a sustained commitment from Yemen’s leadership and the international community. Until then, Yemen’s environmental vulnerabilities are likely to expand.