Despite Washington’s initial support for Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s air campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, recent U.S.-Houthi talks in Muscat, Oman, may suggest a shift in U.S. policy that now prioritizes establishing a political process over continued military operations.
Washington may also have concluded that Salman’s unconditional support for the return of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power is no longer attainable as he is rapidly losing legitimacy among Yemenis for having publicly supported the air campaign from his rather comfortable exile in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Washington also fears that the very sharp focus on the Houthis is leaving Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) unattended, enabling it to extend its own operational reach in Yemen, as well as plan external attacks against Western targets.
Salman, who considers the Houthis to be a strategic threat to the kingdom supported by arch-rival Iran, will also be tested on how he chooses to redefine his relationship with Washington, given the differing views on foreign policy priorities in Syria and Iran. The question of how to proceed in Yemen can now be added to that list.
By facilitating the U.S.-Houthi talks in Muscat, Oman has achieved something of a diplomatic breakthrough, as the Zaydi-Shia clan had rebuffed earlier invitations to meet with U.S. diplomats. While U.S.-Houthi dialogue could help pave the way for a possible negotiated solution to Saudi Arabia’s Yemen war, the talks also demonstrate Washington’s commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security, despite the recent rough patch in U.S.-Saudi relations over differences on regional policy. Should peace talks succeed in rolling back Houthi territorial gains and easing Saudi fears of an Iranian toehold in Yemen, improved U.S.-Saudi relations would clearly be an added benefit.
Is Washington Redefining its Relationship with Riyadh?
At the end of May, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Anne W. Patterson held talks with Houthi leaders in the Omani capital as part of an effort to find a peaceful solution to Yemen’s conflict. Following her talks in Muscat, the senior State Department official responsible for the Middle East and North Africa traveled to Riyadh to brief representatives of Yemen’s exiled government, and the Saudis themselves. While Washington has from the outset publicly supported Saudi Arabia’s military campaign aimed at restoring Hadi’s government to power, Patterson’s talks in Muscat and Riyadh suggest that the United States is growing increasingly concerned about the conflict’s humanitarian costs. Since Salman launched his air campaign in March, over 2,000 people have been killed and nearly 10,000 wounded, according to the United Nations.
Despite initial U.S. intelligence and logistical support, two and a half months into Saudi Arabia’s war, its air campaign has not managed to significantly weaken the Houthis. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia risks losing the support in Yemen that it maintains should airstrikes continue with impunity without any prospects for peace talks. These factors, among others, can help explain Washington’s shift in policy from a supporter of Salman’s war to increasing pressure on Riyadh to modify its position as part of an effort to bring Yemen’s various political factions to the negotiation table.
In addition, the pronounced Saudi focus on the Houthis benefits AQAP, which finds itself with more operating space to plan and execute attacks, even as Sunni tribes turn to AQAP to help prevent Houthi rebels from capturing additional territory, including in Marib province where some of the country’s key oil installations are located.
Saudi Anxiety About Iran, Threatened by ISIL
Salman’s decision to carry out the so-called “Decisive Storm” operation in Yemen, with support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan, underscores how Riyadh and its Sunni allies saw the Houthi attempt to take Aden as part of an Iranian effort to gain a permanent toehold in southern Yemen, further evidence to the Saudis that Iran is determined to consolidate its regional influence.
Meanwhile, the rapid and brutal advance of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIL), a self-proclaimed caliphate, has exacerbated fears in Riyadh that regional instability could threaten its own security. Along with the ISIL threat and Iran’s reemergence as a regional power, prompted by the ongoing push to achieve a nuclear agreement with the P5+1, Saudi Arabia saw the Houthi attempt to take control over Yemen’s three largest cities as a redline that required immediate military attention. Saudi resolve in Yemen can also be tied to its frustrations with the U.S. administration’s policies toward the greater MENA region, in particular, President Barack Obama’s decision not to enforce his own redlines after evidence indicated that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons against the Syrian people. This, coupled with Washington’s readiness to jettison former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a long-standing U.S. and Saudi ally, during the early stages of the Arab uprising, undermined Saudi confidence in the United States.
U.S.-Houthi Dialogue in Oman
It was not surprising that Muscat was chosen for Washington’s talks with the Houthi rebels, as Oman is Saudi Arabia’s only Gulf Cooperation Council ally to not publicly support its war in Yemen. Having successfully facilitated the interim agreement between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s controversial nuclear program, Oman’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, a long-term regional intermediary and indispensible U.S. ally, is in a unique position to encourage Yemen’s various stakeholders to begin negotiations as he enjoys friendly relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Patterson’s talks in Muscat suggest a clear shift in U.S. policy that now prioritizes establishing a political process that aims to bring Yemen’s various political factions to the negotiation table. So far, Hadi has insisted that his government will not negotiate with the Houthis in Geneva, claiming that talks scheduled for June 14 will focus solely on the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216, which calls on the rebels to withdraw from the territory they have seized since September 2014. Despite Hadi’s position, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has repeated his call on all parties to enter the talks without preconditions.
While the Geneva talks could help pave the way for a possible negotiated solution to Saudi Arabia’s Yemen war, Washington’s initiative to bring the parties together demonstrates its determination to support its Saudi ally in mitigating threats to Gulf security, including those perceived as coming from Iran. Should peace talks succeed, and Saudi fears of Tehran gaining a toehold in the Arabian Peninsula recede, relations between Washington and Riyadh would clearly benefit.
