The world’s population has been dramatically increasing. In 1950, the population was 2.6 billion. It nearly doubled in 1987 and reached 7 billion in 2011. Today the world’s population is 7.9 billion and is expected to hit 10 billion in 2057. These dramatic growth rates are due, in part, to urbanization, advances in medical treatment, and high fertility rates. The population increase has ramifications on several aspects of life in most countries. But these are particularly severe for fragile states such as Iraq, where misgovernance is particularly acute, trapping vulnerable communities in poverty and adding strains on the environment and infrastructure.

According to Iraq’s Ministry of Planning, the country’s population reached 41 million at the end of 2021, with nearly 70% living in urban areas and 30% in rural areas. In 2020, Iraq’s population grew by 2.5%, which is considerably high by world standards. The Iraqi government will need to prepare for the tremendous increase in the population by providing food security, building infrastructure, and improving the economy – with the weak state of Iraqi governance, these are tasks it doesn’t seem equipped to undertake.

Food insecurity is already a major issue in Iraq, and conditions will only deteriorate with the increase in population. The contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product of Iraq declined from 9% in 2002 to 3.6% in 2009 mainly due to internal conflict and an increased population flow from rural to urban areas. From 2014 to 2017, Iraq’s agricultural output decreased from about $15 billion to about $7.6 billion largely because of the incursion of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. There has also been a decline in fertile land, particularly in southern Iraq. For instance, in the area surrounding the port town Fao, the arable land diminished from nearly 3 square miles to under 1.5 square miles, contributing to a population decrease from 400,000 to 50,000 over four decades as residents were driven to move to larger cities. According to the United States Agency for International Development, there are 4.1 million Iraqis that need humanitarian assistance, including 920,000 who are food insecure. These numbers will certainly escalate as the population increases. And the Iraqi government’s inability to solve current problems suggests they will continue to mount particularly considering the problems with declining agricultural productivity and deteriorating Iraqi economy writ large.

The population growth is adding pressure on an already strained Iraqi economy. The Iraqi economy is very dependent on the oil sector; in 2019 it accounted for 96% of Iraq’s exports, 92% of government revenue, and 43% of GDP. Hiring in the public sector has become part of the social contract between the government and society; and the government has bloated the bureaucracy at the expense of supporting the private sector. There are 8 million Iraqis that receive salaries, pensions, or other types of social benefits from the state. With Iraq’s high population growth rate, it cannot maintain this economic model. Currently nearly 60% of Iraq’s population is under 25 years old. The youth population, between the ages of 14 and 29, was 7 million in 2015 and is projected to reach 10 million by 2030. This means considerably more young people will enter an already saturated job market, with a bloated public sector and frail private sector. In addition, Iraq’s youth unemployment stands at 36%, and the labor market in Iraq is marked by low levels of skilled labor, a trend that is likely to continue because of the inadequate education system. Without increasing education levels and skills, Iraqi workers will not be able to compete with foreigners for jobs created by foreign direct investment or establish the ground for a vibrant private sector that can compete in the global market.

The population growth will also add more pressure on a dilapidated Iraqi infrastructure. Over the past four decades, war, vicious domestic conflict, and international economic sanctions have taken a daunting toll on Iraq’s infrastructure. For example, the health sector has suffered enormously not only during conflict but through lack of funding during periods of relative stability. Baghdad alone needs an estimated 70 new hospitals to cope with the population increase, and the number of hospitals needed will certainly be much higher in other regions. In 2019, the government allocated only 2.5% of its budget to the Ministry of Health and according to data from the World Health Organization, on average, Iraq spent much less on health care per capita than its poorer neighbors. Because of the government’s deficient funding dedicated to the health sector, the number of hospital beds per person declined from 1.9 beds for every 1,000 Iraqis in 1980 to just 1.3 in 2017. There has also been a lack of investment in the education system. Half of the schools in Iraq are damaged, many operate in multiple shifts, and the number of qualified teachers is declining. Moreover, there are millions of school-aged children who are not enrolled in schools. For example, in the governorates of Saladin and Diyala, which have been hit particularly hard by conflict, 90% of children “have been left out of the education system.” Lacking education, these children will be a burden rather than a boon for the state in the future. Further, Iraq’s energy and power infrastructure is in desperate need of investment. The electricity sector “suffers from decades of damage and mismanagement” due to failures from consecutive governments. Most governorates provide only a few hours of electricity per day because the government is unable to “meet demand in parallel with the rising population.”

The Iraqi government’s failure to invest in human capital and reconstruction has left the country unprepared for the current rate of population growth. Compounding the issue is the challenge of building a viable infrastructure, improving education, and diversifying the economy – problems that have been decades in the making. To meet the needs of a growing population, the government will need to face the formidable tasks of liberalizing the economy (relying less on oil), elevating education to global standards, and integrating the youth who are entering the labor force. These, and many other, mounting issues will only intensify as a larger population puts even greater pressure on a fragile economy and environment.