As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to return to the White House, he will find a transformed Gulf region that he, in part, helped create. Most Gulf Arab countries enjoyed a comfortable working relationship with Trump during his first term. He made Saudi Arabia his first overseas stop, fostered personal relationships with Gulf leaders, offered strong defense support for their countries, and ushered in the Abraham Accords. However, his confrontational approach with Iran and a lack of U.S. response to Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities led Gulf states to address their differences through diplomacy, dialogue, and cooperation. This has led to an easing of tensions within the Gulf Cooperation Council and an overall detente with Iran. 

How are Gulf countries preparing for the return of Trump to the White House? How will Gulf countries react if Trump returns to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran? Will Gulf countries sustain their self-reliance and regional reconciliation, despite pressure to reverse course? Will other Gulf countries agree to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel? What role will they seek to play in ending Israel’s war in Gaza? How will Gulf countries balance their relations between the United States and China if the new administration seeks a more confrontational approach with Beijing? Is there a role for Gulf countries to play in mediating the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine? Will Gulf countries succeed in securing firm security guarantees and U.S. investment as they try to diversify the region’s economic base away from reliance on energy exports?