On October 7, Hamas militants stormed into Israel, leaving more than 1,000 Israeli soldiers and civilians dead and at least 150 captured and taken into Gaza. This unexpected, brutal attack was the most dramatic violence in Israeli territory in decades. Israel has responded with a massive bombing campaign that has already killed several hundred Palestinians, imposed a “complete siege” on the Gaza Strip – blocking the supply of electricity, water, food, and fuel – and amassed troops for a likely ground assault. There have also been exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border, leaving casualties on both sides.

What impact will this severe escalation in Israeli-Palestinian violence have on broad regional trends of de-escalation and rapprochement? If prospects for any two-state solution to the conflict already seemed more a rhetorical exercise than a real effort, has the current violence permanently damaged this approach? Is there any serious doubt that Iran was a major player behind the scenes, and will Tehran inevitably benefit or could this backfire? Might Israel be tempted, especially if it finds itself bogged down in a protracted multifront campaign against Iranian client organizations, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to take the conflict directly to Iran? Where does this leave the U.S. administration’s quest for a triangular agreement involving Saudi-Israeli diplomatic normalization? And, finally, how will Arab public opinion and reactions shape the calculations of Gulf Arab countries, and even the United States, to the unfolding crisis and its complex implications for the region?