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Sadr's Inevitable Comeback: How Will He Reenter the Political Game?

For the first time since 2005, Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has no clear political role and no formal road map to get back into politics until elections are held again in 2025. So where does this leave him and the Sadrist movement?

Geneive Abdo العربية switch to english
Sadr's Inevitable Comeback: How Will He Reenter the Political Game?
A supporter holds a portrait of Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr during a protest against corruption in Baghdad's highly fortified Green Zone, Iraq July 27, 2022. (REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani)

Executive Summary

Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has been a key player on the Iraqi political scene for nearly two decades, bowed out of politics in 2022. He was manipulated by his Shia rivals, who outmaneuvered – and effectively stole power from – him after the October 2021 parliamentary elections. For the first time since 2005, Sadr has no clear political role and no formal road map to get back into politics until elections are held again in 2025. So where does this leave him and the Sadrist movement, which is comprised of millions of his followers? Iraqis fear he could unleash his supporters and take to the streets, as he has done many times in the past, to regain the political leverage he has lost. This has the potential to spark widespread violence and an all-out intra-Shia conflict.

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Geneive Abdo

is a former fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. She was most recently a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.

The views represented herein are the author’s or speaker’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of AGSIW, its staff, or its board of directors.

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