While the strategic value of Iran’s drones seems limited thus far, Moscow seems to view them as an inexpensive – and punitive – way to maintain leverage in the conflict.
On August 4, AGSIW, the University of Haifa, and the National Security Studies Center hosted a discussion examining Gulf-Russia relations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
A revived nuclear deal with Iran would untangle some energy knots while tightening others.
Russian equivocation, U.S. distraction, and Gulf Arab states’ reliance on deterrence and defense will likely undermine prospects for addressing regional missile proliferation through diplomacy.
Supply chain interruptions and rising food and fuel prices are hitting countries in the Middle East and Africa particularly hard, given the heavy reliance on Russian and Ukrainian staple food imports.
On March 10, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining the impact of the Ukraine crisis on global oil and gas markets and the direct effects on the Gulf region.
The IEA’s release of over 60 million barrels of emergency oil stocks was the largest in IEA history. But there is increasing recognition of the need to coordinate such short-term measures with longer-term solutions.
Should more countries follow the EU’s lead and step up efforts to seek alternative supplies of oil and gas, Russia could find itself out in the cold, whether it wins or loses the war against Ukraine.
Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE sought to protect ties with Moscow and strategic diversification but underestimated the cost.
While the Gulf Arab states may wish to avoid getting caught in the middle of a “Russia versus the West” conflict, the Ukraine crisis is already affecting the region’s tourism, food, energy, and other economic sectors.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine crystallizes existing Gulf policies and could form the backdrop to further regional polarization and instability.
Russia’s operations in Syria emboldened Putin and the Russian military to challenge the U.S.-led, rules-based international system that many countries, including in the Gulf, have benefited from.
In the long term, Qatar could play a pivotal role in diversifying European gas imports away from Russia.
On March 1, AGSIW hosted a discussion examining challenges and threats to regional de-escalation and rapprochement.
Oman’s Military Discipline Program uses military codes to promote top-down objectives, such as strengthening social cohesion, responsibility, and a sense of national belonging among young Omanis.
Learn MoreWith nearly all its obvious national security pathways closed, Iran might be left with no option other than to turn inward toward addressing its domestic strains while seeking de-escalation with adversaries and downplaying its drive for regional influence.
The flurry of diplomatic activity and the leadership’s announcement of an extended timeline for holding elections signal a prolonged, difficult transition for Syria, with complex internal jousting for power also shaped by external influence.
Gulf states met the Syrian regime’s fall with unity and pragmatism. But already differences are emerging in response to the political transition and the possibility of chaos, extremism, and a feeble state unable to preserve its territorial integrity.
Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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