While the Middle East has immense solar potential, some countries in the region with favorable wind speeds have added wind energy to their renewable energy plans as part of efforts to reach net-zero carbon emissions.

Wind energy is the cleanest and cheapest energy source in most of the world, although solar power is more competitive in the Gulf. However, newer wind turbines are more efficient, and project costs have declined in the past decade. Wind power for electricity generation has the advantage of being able to complement solar power by kicking in when the sun sets. The region’s significant wind resources are largely untapped, though that will soon change when new projects under construction or awaiting financing come online. But despite the region’s advantageous conditions, wind and solar are still intermittent sources of energy that require storage solutions to be viable.

The Promise of Wind Power in the Middle East

The Middle East has an advantage over the United States and Europe, where securing government permits to build wind farms can take years and projects often face opposition from local communities. Projects in the Middle East typically don’t have to contend with these obstacles, though countries everywhere are grappling with rising costs of raw materials and supply chain delays.

Wind farms require vast tracts of land and sufficient wind speeds. Small turbines can run on wind speeds of 4 meters per second, while larger, utility-scale turbines require wind speeds of 5.8 meters per second. A number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa have areas with suitable conditions for wind installations, including Egypt’s Gulf of Suez, the Atlantic coast and some eastern parts of Morocco, Saudi Arabia’s northwestern desert, and southern Oman.

The rapid surge in renewable energy ambitions in the Middle East and North Africa in recent years has coincided with much lower wind auction prices, when projects are presented by governments to interested bidders. According to the International Energy Agency, average onshore wind auction prices in the Middle East fell from $120 per megawatt-hour in 2019 to $28/MWh in 2022, lower than Europe’s 2022 average of $36/MWh.

Wind and solar energy dominated renewable capacity expansion worldwide in 2022, accounting for 90% of all net renewable additions, leading to the highest growth in renewable generation capacity on record, the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency noted in a March report. The Middle East also registered its largest expansion of renewable energy on record, with 3.2 gigawatts of new capacity commissioned in 2022, the majority of which was solar.

Despite this growth, in 2022 the Middle East had only 28.54 GW of installed renewable generation capacity, or just 1% of total global capacity, the lowest of any region, though the Middle East’s share will likely be slightly higher in 2023. The region’s onshore wind capacity in 2022 was around 1.05 GW, primarily concentrated in Iran and Jordan. Egypt, which IRENA listed under the Africa region, had an estimated wind capacity of 1.64 GW in 2022 – more than the entire Middle East – thanks to its installations located mainly in the Gulf of Suez, where wind speeds can reach over 10 meters per second. In 2022, Morocco’s installed wind capacity was estimated at 1.56 GW, slightly higher than its solar capacity.

Solar and Wind in the Middle East

If Middle Eastern countries hope to reduce emissions and reach their net-zero targets, solar and wind energy must be scaled up to provide zero-carbon energy and displace natural gas, which the Gulf Arab states are heavily reliant on for power generation.

Jordan, lacking significant oil or gas reserves, has few nonrenewable alternatives to ensure its energy security and has invested in both solar and wind projects. The same applies to Morocco, which was an early starter in developing renewables but still relies on oil and gas imports for 90% of its energy.

Egypt, where oil production has declined and gas is being prioritized to cash in on a surge in demand for liquefied natural gas, has attracted substantial investment in wind and solar ventures. Egypt has 1.56 GW of installed solar photovoltaic capacity and 1.59 GW of wind capacity. A 250-MW wind farm on the Gulf of Suez will come online later this year as part of Cairo’s plans to add 1.5 GW of wind capacity by 2025.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP27, held in Egypt in late 2022, provided a boost to the region’s renewable energy drive. A raft of renewable energy projects were completed in the run-up to the summit, and more climate commitments are expected at COP28, which will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates in November.

The UAE has the most diversified energy mix of the Gulf oil exporters, with a combination of natural gas, solar power, and nuclear energy. Other Gulf states have lagged behind in tapping into their renewable resources, though Saudi Arabia has set ambitious clean energy targets, including in wind power.

Abu Dhabi’s investment in renewables and nuclear power has paid off, allowing the emirate to meet rising demand for electricity and cut gas consumption. In 2022, with the third unit of the Barakah nuclear power plant in operation, Abu Dhabi’s gas consumption fell to an 11-year low. Once Barakah reaches full capacity, which is expected by 2024, the plant will provide 25% of the UAE’s electricity needs, according to the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation.

The contribution of renewables to the Saudi energy mix increased marginally in 2022 after the 400-MW Dumat al-Jandal wind farm went online in late 2021, but it remains small. However, Riyadh has stepped up decarbonization efforts and plans to transition its power generation from gas to renewables with the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. Although Saudi Arabia’s renewables capacity makes up less than 0.4% of its total power generation capacity, the kingdom is aiming for a 50-50 split between gas and renewables and is planning to increase its renewables capacity by over 58 GW by the end of the decade. In addition, Saudi Arabia plans to invest over $260 billion in its power sector by 2030 to boost clean energy generation capacity and enhance its transmission and distribution networks.

Planned Saudi renewables projects include a 700-MW wind farm at Yanbu (Emirati clean energy producer Masdar has a stake in the project). In total, Saudi Arabia has signed power purchase agreements for renewables projects with a total output capacity of over 10 GW, according to figures from MEES.

Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power have invested in several solar and wind projects across the Middle East and North Africa, helping to drive the region’s energy transition forward. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also betting on growth in demand for green hydrogen, which is produced from renewable sources and could serve as a revenue source as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

Oman is also developing a green hydrogen industry and scaling up its renewable energy capacity. Outside of solar projects, however, Oman’s only operational renewables project is the modest 50-MW Dhofar wind project, which came online in 2019 after years of delay. The sultanate plans to build two more wind farms by mid-2026 with a combined capacity of 300 MW, bringing Oman’s total renewables capacity to 2.45 GW. As part of its Vision 2040 economic reform program, Oman plans to build enough solar and wind installations to provide nearly 40% of its electricity by 2040.

The IEA’s “Net Zero by 2050” scenario published in May 2021 calls for two-thirds of the world’s energy supply to come from wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal, and hydropower by mid-century, requiring solar photovoltaic capacity to increase twentyfold and wind power capacity to increase elevenfold. The report projects that by 2050, almost 90% of electricity generation must come from renewable energy sources, with wind and solar photovoltaic power accounting for 70% of total renewable electricity generation.

The Path Forward for Gulf Producers

Events over the past two years have slowed the growth of installed wind capacity. The coronavirus pandemic took the wind out of the sails of the energy transition, slowing industrial activity and disrupting supply chains for key components. The situation has been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation and higher interest rates, and bureaucratic hurdles to acquiring permits for wind projects in Europe, where the race to transition away from fossil fuels has gained traction.

The IEA’s May 2021 report suggested that net-zero scenarios don’t require any new oil and gas projects, a projection that rankled Gulf oil producers. But the report also stated that as “traditional supply activities decline, the expertise of the oil and natural gas industry” aligns with climate technologies such as hydrogen energy, carbon capture, utilization, and storage, and offshore wind, all of which “are needed to tackle emissions in sectors where reductions are likely to be most challenging.”

COP28 offers the UAE and other Gulf Arab states the opportunity to showcase their green credentials and prove that their net zero pledges and commitments are more than just hot air.