Supreme Oscillation: Khamenei’s Trump Strategy
Iran’s supreme leader is facing a strategic dilemma in how to pursue diplomacy with the United States and project strength amid internal fracturing and ambiguity.
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Iran Meets Elon
While any U.S.-Iran rapprochement could potentially ease sanctions on Iran, such a shift is poised to generate sharply divergent responses among U.S. allies.
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Uncertain: Iran Policies of U.S. Presidential Candidates
Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.
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Iran Might Reevaluate Its Strategy
The relative failure of Iranian missile strikes has significantly eroded the value of Tehran’s enormous investment in its missile and drone technology and raised serious questions among Iran’s regional allies about the ability of Tehran to come to their defense.
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Bahrain and Iran Aim to Restore Ties
While regional dynamics support de-escalation between Bahrain and Iran, a host of obstacles and a potent history of bilateral grievances are likely to ensure anemic relations.
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The U.S. Prevented War, Yet Iran’s Strategic Decision-Making Process Remains Flawed
The crisis between Iran and Israel may be contained for now, but the breakdown in decision making that led to the end of Iran’s “strategic patience” carries risks going forward.
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Why the Saudi-Iranian Pact Is Withstanding the Gaza War
The Gaza war has demonstrated the strategic utility and resilience of the detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, its longer-term sustainability may depend on unpredictable regional dynamics or other outside factors.
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What Do Recent Fatalities Reveal About the Quds Force and IRGC?
Targeted assassinations of skilled engineers, seasoned commanders, and intelligence operatives are no doubt taking a toll on the IRGC and the Quds Force but not enough for Iran to reconsider its attempt at containing the perceived threat from Israel.
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Tactical Theatrics: Iranian Proxies and Allies Respond to the War in Gaza
Iran and its allies appear to be engaged in symbolic actions against Israeli and U.S. forces rather than openly provoking a war, but these theatrics still risk igniting a regional war all involved parties want to avoid.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: IEA, EIA, and OPEC Slash Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Global demand forecasts by leading agencies have diverged sharply, reflecting a deepening sense of uncertainty about the future path of the global economy.
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Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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