Targeted assassinations of skilled engineers, seasoned commanders, and intelligence operatives are no doubt taking a toll on the IRGC and the Quds Force but not enough for Iran to reconsider its attempt at containing the perceived threat from Israel.
Iran and its allies appear to be engaged in symbolic actions against Israeli and U.S. forces rather than openly provoking a war, but these theatrics still risk igniting a regional war all involved parties want to avoid.
While there are ways Hezbollah could become involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, neither Hezbollah nor Iran appears interested in a wider regional war.
Iran may look to emulate Saudi Arabia in its efforts to reorient its foreign policy and establish a more balanced position in relations with the great powers of the East and West.
A thaw with Egypt may help an economically besieged Iranian government rattled by popular protests boost its regional standing.
With Sultan Haitham’s planned trip to Tehran to mediate between Iran and the United States, the Omani leader appears to be following his predecessor’s path as a regional interlocutor.
Despite efforts to present Iran’s supposedly strong ties with African states, Iran has failed to forge robust partnerships on the continent.
The role of Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in the Iranian-Saudi talks is a strong indication of the supreme leader’s direct influence over Iran’s foreign policy decision making.
China may be able to build on its breakthrough with more ambitious Gulf diplomacy, but, in the meantime, it appears Saudi Arabia and Iran are forging ahead on their own.
No matter who wins the White House in November, the United States may increasingly have to manage crosscutting divisions in the existing world order.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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