Russia’s operations in Syria emboldened Putin and the Russian military to challenge the U.S.-led, rules-based international system that many countries, including in the Gulf, have benefited from.
The conflict in Syria has witnessed countless developments that seem to promise change and movement. But the tragic, stalemated realities reassert themselves each time.
Gulf countries are reassessing their relations with the Assad regime, but U.S. sanctions preventing investment and reconstruction will impede any true reintegration of Syria into the region.
The Biden team must assess whether it has the leverage and sufficient regional support if it wants to continue with the status quo in Syria.
Russia hopes that engaging Gulf Arab countries could encourage their investments in Syria’s reconstruction process and facilitate Syria’s return to the Arab League.
Many Gulf states have shifted course on Syria, prioritizing concerns over growing Iranian and Turkish influence.
The pageantry that greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reflects the “quantum leap” in relations since his last state visit.
The UAE is poised to emerge as Russia’s most important Gulf Arab partner on Syria.
From the establishment of the Turkey-Russia-Iran triumvirate to the ongoing Arab efforts to re-engage with Syria, everything can be traced back to the events of December 2016.
The crisis between Iran and Israel may be contained for now, but the breakdown in decision making that led to the end of Iran’s “strategic patience” carries risks going forward.
Learn MoreThrough its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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