This report is based on the presentations and discussions during the UAE Security Forum 2018, “Yemen after the War: Addressing the Challenges of Peace and Reconstruction,” held on December 9, 2018 in Abu Dhabi.
Yemen is likely to be dealing with partial and fragmented peace agreements before any integrated national solution is reached. Reconstruction efforts will need to begin before conflict is fully extinguished and it is essential to be proactive in preparing for the postconflict period.
Areas most receptive to reconstruction should be identified and work should begin in a way that encourages other regions to create conditions that permit an effective insertion of human and financial resources.
Reunification of the Central Bank of Yemen should be a top priority of any economic-stabilization effort, so that it reemerges as an efficient and trusted institution with sufficient capital to stabilize the national currency.
A national reconstruction authority should be established with representatives of key donor and neighboring states, international nongovernmental organizations, and an inclusive Yemeni transitional government. This body needs to have strong links to local municipal councils in order to build trust and ensure a bottom-up rather than top-down process of establishing reconstruction priorities, and should focus on small-scale, quick-impact projects.
The task of disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating up to 1 million fighters should be tackled immediately and all militias and other forces need to be treated equally. Creating employment for these individuals so they have an economic alternative to rearming themselves should be an immediate priority.
Drawing on Yemen’s still-strong private sector, and an active diaspora community, the country’s economic assets, such as fisheries, deep-water ports, and energy resources, should be developed quickly.
Yemen’s political future – whether it emerges from the conflict as a unified state or a loose confederation of statelets – will need to be decided by Yemenis themselves. National elections will be an important part of this process, but they should not be rushed, and only held after sufficient focus on participation and accountability ensures their peaceful organization.
As a stable and prosperous Yemen benefits the broader region, the neighboring Gulf Cooperation Council states should consider concessions to Yemen to assist with the long-term economic and social stabilization the country will require as it emerges from this conflict.
The recent breakthrough in Sweden at U.N.-sponsored talks between the warring parties has revived hopes that a political settlement between representatives of the Yemeni government and Ansar Allah, the Houthi movement, may be reached in the near future. And while a peace is not likely to be reached without some setbacks, and some degree of conflict is expected to continue, it is not too early to address some pressing issues related to the postwar period in Yemen. Past experiences and failures, in Yemen and in other postconflict countries, have informed the best way to handle stabilization efforts to prevent a resurgence of violence.
At the forum, speakers and discussants agreed on the need to take small, simple, and pragmatic steps to quickly improve living conditions for the Yemeni population. They discussed how a responsible management of monetary policy through a reunified central bank could curb the spiraling humanitarian crisis. They addressed the need for security sector reforms and stabilization strategies that will establish pockets of peace through locally negotiated settlements. They linked unemployment reduction to any successful efforts at disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration. They mapped Yemen’s many economic assets: a resilient private sector, a bountiful diaspora and promising resources like agriculture, animal husbandry, fisheries, renewable energy, and deep-water ports. And finally, assessing the role of regional and international players in the reconstruction efforts, they stressed the need for coordination and burden sharing, as well as an emphasis on a bottom-up rather than top-down design of the reconstruction process.
While any U.S.-Iran rapprochement could potentially ease sanctions on Iran, such a shift is poised to generate sharply divergent responses among U.S. allies.
The acknowledgment of the growing interdependency between the EU and GCC and the rising diplomatic role of the Gulf Arab countries in global affairs have prompted Brussels to step up political engagement with the GCC.
On Syria, the United States risks becoming increasingly out of step with its key allies, who have moved toward diplomatic engagement.
Support Us
Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
