As Israel’s military action in Gaza stretches into its seventh month, the humanitarian situation has descended to levels that aid experts and officials struggle to convey. The head of the United Nations World Food Program has warned that Gaza faces the “real prospect of famine by May, with over 500,000 people at risk.” The European Union Parliament rang the alarm in mid-March of the “looming risk of mass starvation in Gaza.” Shortly afterward, UNICEF warned that rates of acute malnutrition have doubled in one month, a “staggering escalation” according to aid experts, with one in three children in Gaza now suffering from acute malnutrition. In a March 18 report, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative, the leading body on food emergencies, assessed that 1.1 million people, half the population of Gaza, will face catastrophic levels of hunger and starvation between now and July. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres insisted after the report’s release that no other country or area of the world faces such a risk or has ever received such a severe rating.
The problem is not only based on the limited food supplies getting into Gaza but the destruction of basic services (health care, electricity networks, water, and sanitation) needed to help avert a famine. Humanitarian officials make clear the looming famine is “man-made and primarily caused by restricted access,” with hundreds of tons of food available for distribution just miles outside Rafah. The reality that three-quarters of Gaza’s population has been displaced, often multiple times, has also exacerbated the crisis.
A U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council draft resolution currently under consideration refers to “catastrophic levels of hunger” and the danger posed by “conflict-induced famine and epidemics” facing the people of Gaza. The draft calls for an immediate and sustained cease-fire, dropping any reference to “temporary,” on which the United States previously insisted. It also calls for the release of Israeli hostages and lifting of restrictions on delivery of humanitarian aid.
Officials and experts struggling to address this humanitarian crisis point to a number of primary causes, including:
- Delays at Israeli-controlled checkpoints and violence against aid convoys.
- Unclear or unnecessary Israeli regulations regarding which items are permitted or prohibited (so-called dual-use items).
- Breakdown in civil order, driven by “sheer desperation.”
- Israeli limitations on the number of land-entry points and targeting of civilian police responsible for protecting aid convoys. Air drops of aid are costly and dangerous, and, like maritime delivery, they are limited in scale by several orders of magnitude when compared with overland aid delivery by trucks.
These causes, and the conditions they have helped spawn in Gaza, have had outsized impact as a result of the 17-year blockade Israel imposed on Gaza after Hamas took control in 2007. The air, land, and sea blockade was reinforced by what Israeli human rights groups refer to as a “permit regime” administered by Israel’s Office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, which turned Gaza into an “open-air prison” long before October 7. The blockade prompted an extended period of “de-development” in Gaza over the past decade, making it extremely vulnerable to conditions imposed since October 7. Real gross domestic product per capita in Gaza in 2022, for example, well before the current crisis, was nearly 12% below 2019 levels. Unemployment in 2022 stood at 45%. In the years before October 7, 80% of Gazans were dependent on international humanitarian assistance.
Perceptions of the humanitarian catastrophe Gaza faces today are being sharpened by the ongoing Israeli military operation in Gaza that has killed nearly 32,000 people, the majority of them women and children, and the accelerating threat of a Rafah offensive.
Gulf Countries Deploy Aid, Public Criticism to Shape Crisis
Into this vortex a number of Gulf countries have continued persistent efforts to respond appropriately to this crisis – with actions ranging from private diplomacy and behind-the-scenes maneuvering to public criticism of Israel and extensive efforts to fund and deliver assistance into Gaza.
On the humanitarian side, the Emiratis have collaborated with Egypt since February to air drop food supplies into Gaza, and they recently funded a maritime delivery from Cyprus of 200 tons of food supplies organized by the Spanish Aid Group World Central Kitchen, led by celebrity chef José Andrés.
The United Arab Emirates was also reportedly instrumental in pressuring the United States to take the initiative in constructing a floating dock to offload humanitarian assistance into Gaza. In a related, though unconfirmed, exercise of pressure, the Emiratis threatened to stop the land trade bridge to Israel established to go through Saudi Arabia and Jordan (after Houthi attacks closed most Red Sea shipping) if humanitarian aid did not enter Gaza. Media accounts indicate that Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan has refused contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since October 7, an application of indirect pressure apparently aimed at increasing the Israeli leader’s isolation. There has also been harsh official criticism of Israeli actions in Gaza, including by the UAE’s U.N. ambassador, Lana Nusseibeh. In addition, a senior police commander in Dubai has been permitted, even if speaking in his personal capacity, to urge Arab leaders to reconsider dealing with Israel. The Saudis have applied pressure verbally and in their moves to back away from talks regarding the normalization of ties with Israel and toughening demands for a Palestinian state.
The UAE is also hosting former Gaza security forces commander Mohammed Dahlan and allowing him, as a key advisor to the Emirati leadership, to maneuver both behind the scenes and in the media to build support for a day-after plan for Gaza. On the side of commercial diplomacy, the Emirati national oil company ADNOC, with its partner BP, March 13 suspended a $2 billion gas deal with Israel’s largest national gas producer, NewMed. The Emiratis also seem to be using positive gestures to remind the Israelis of the benefits of normalization with the UAE, including an open Israeli embassy in Abu Dhabi, the continuation of direct flights, and allowing the Israeli Minister of Economy and Industry in February to attend a gathering of the World Trade Organization in Abu Dhabi, the first ministerial-level visit since October 7.
Saudis Back Away From Considering Normalizing Ties
Both the Emiratis and the Saudis joined others in harshly condemning Israel for opening fire on Palestinians waiting for food aid deliveries in early March, killing over 100 people, according to Gaza health authorities. On the Saudi-owned Al Majalla news site February 25, Saudi intellectual and writer Hesham Alghannam went beyond questioning the value of normalizing ties and insisted Israel had become “a moral burden” for anyone engaging with it; he questioned whether peace with Israel was any longer desirable, in light of what he termed the atrocities it had committed in Gaza and the military dominance over Arabs Israel seeks to project. Ghannam directly referenced Saudi policy at several points and cited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directly, signaling he was reflecting high-level Saudi views.
Qataris Continue Cease-Fire, Hostage Negotiations
On the more formal diplomatic front, the Qataris continue to host indirect negotiations tied to the release of Israeli hostages. The parties, including Israel’s Mossad-led team, resumed efforts March 17 in Doha. Technical teams were continuing the talks days later.
With immense international pressure building to address a famine on Gaza’s doorstep and adamant Israeli insistence instead on moving forward with a Rafah military operation, the coming days could have long-term, negative consequences for Gulf normalization with Israel. Led by an Israeli government focused on domestic political considerations and post-October 7 trauma and anger, Israel seems unwilling or unable to respond to this mounting pressure and panic from international aid officials, allies, and long-time friends. While the rapid slide from acute food insecurity into famine in Gaza seems to have begun, the international reaction is likely to be slower to mount. But as the evidence becomes more overwhelming and that international reaction builds, Israel’s standing will suffer an immense blow. Efforts to normalize relations with well-disposed Gulf countries will likely suffer serious damage as well.
