“The time is now 6 o’clock and 18 minutes in Damascus time. Syria is without Bashar al-Assad,” announced Al-Hadath news anchor Hussein Alsheikh on December 8, 2024. His words quickly became an iconic moment of the Syrian revolution, spreading rapidly across social media. The Assad regime collapsed over the course of 11 days in late 2024, ending 54 years of authoritarian rule and sending shockwaves across the world.
Following the fall of the regime, tens of thousands of political prisoners were freed, and family members were reunited after years of forced exile. Meanwhile, people across the country took to the streets to celebrate Assad’s downfall and express hope for a brighter future for Syria.
Despite the relative stability in post-Assad Syria, the country’s political landscape remains fragile. At the same time, nearly 13.4 million Syrians remain displaced both internally and abroad. Reconstruction is estimated to cost up to $400 billion, and the economy remains devastated, with gross domestic product shrinking by 54% from 2010-21. Meanwhile, United Nations estimates indicate that 90% of the population now lives below the poverty line.
Beyond the severe damage to infrastructure caused by Syria’s 14-year civil war and the deep-rooted corruption of the Assad regime, the country’s economic crisis has been exacerbated by Western sanctions imposed in response to the regime’s massive human rights violations and war crimes associated with the Syrian civil war. The United States in fact has been periodically imposing sanctions on Syria as far back as 1979, when it was first designated a state sponsor of terrorism. Further U.S. sanctions were imposed in 2004, 2005, and 2011. In 2019, Congress passed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, a measure aimed at pressuring the Assad regime back to the negotiating table for a political solution to Syria’s civil war, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, and at slowing the momentum of diplomatic normalization the Assad regime was achieving in the region. The European Union has similarly imposed accumulating economic sanctions on Syria since 2011. Now, with Assad’s fall, the new Syrian leadership is urging the international community to lift these sanctions to aid in rebuilding efforts.
In recent weeks, the United States and European Union have begun taking the first limited steps to reconsider the case for sanctions enforcement on Syria. On December 20, 2024, senior U.S. diplomats met with Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Damascus in what U.S. officials later described as a “very productive” meeting. In early January, the U.S. Treasury issued a six-month “general license” allowing limited transactions with Syria’s interim government, specifically for certain energy sales and limited transactions by the government to facilitate the delivery of public services as well as personal remittances. Except for that very limited set of recent exceptions and another granted by the U.S. Treasury a few years ago to allow limited economic activity in Syrian regions not under regime control, the full force and reach of these layers of U.S. sanctions remain in effect. In late January, EU foreign ministers announced a “roadmap” to ease sanctions on Syria’s energy and transportation sectors, although the announcement was caveated with implied benchmarks aimed at the Sharaa government. While the January actions by the United States and EU point the way to revived economic activity in Syria, further sanctions must be lifted in the near future to enable large-scale reconstruction and attract much-needed foreign investment, ensuring both Syria’s economic recovery and regional stability.
More Sanctions Must Go
Syria’s interim government has taken steps to alleviate the economic burden on Syrians. The depreciation of the Syrian pound and the drop in transportation costs – due to the removal of thousands of military checkpoints that extorted bribes from travelers under Assad – have led to a roughly 50% decline in food prices. Additionally, Syria’s interim finance minister announced a plan to raise salaries by 400% for public sector employees, who currently earn only around $25 per month. The government has also expressed its intention to adopt a free-market economy in Syria. However, despite these efforts and aspirations, the ongoing Western sanctions are keeping a tight chokehold on Syria’s post-Assad recovery and growth potential.
While these U.S. and EU-led initiatives should help alleviate some of Syria’s economic stress, their limited scope does not address the country’s most pressing needs for economic recovery – namely, large-scale reconstruction initiatives and foreign investments in its war-torn economy. All such efforts at present remain proscribed by the extensive reach of the Caesar Act, renewed by Congress in late December 2024, despite the momentous developments in Syria earlier in the month. The Caesar sanctions directly target international efforts to inject reconstruction assistance or investment into Syria, threatening violators with being cut off from U.S. and international financial systems. Delaying reconstruction and investment risks destabilizing Syria’s fragile political dynamics, potentially undermining both regional and Western interests. Even if some in the region and more broadly may quietly argue for the need to maintain some leverage on the Sharaa government to ensure its timelines for elections and a new constitution remain realistic and grounded in the promise of freedom and an inclusive government for the Syrian people, the current layered sanctions regime is too blunt and destructive to Syria’s economy and humanitarian situation.
Stability in Syria aligns with these actors’ strategic interests, especially given Iran’s sharp decline in influence following Assad’s fall to rebel forces. Sharaa stated that the rebels’ victory “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years.” While it is too soon to determine the full impact of Syria’s rebel victory on Iran’s long-term influence, the catastrophic collapse of Iranian influence in Syria has undeniably weakened Tehran’s regional ambitions.
A stable Syria also serves regional and Western interests by helping contain the refugee crisis. An estimated 6.2 million Syrian refugees are living in neighboring countries and Europe. Ensuring stability in the country will not only create the right conditions for refugees to return home, safely and voluntarily, but also prevent future waves of displacement.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Sharaa also emphasized that “the Syrian revolution ended with the regime’s fall” and that the new government has no intention of exporting its revolution or becoming a source of regional instability. This message was meant to reassure Arab countries and the West that the new Syrian leadership is focused on rebuilding its war-torn country and ensuring stability in the region. The message seems to have been received, with countries in the region easing past initial expressions of caution and concern to express varying degrees of support for the new government and a willingness to work with it.
The Role of Gulf Countries
Gulf countries have a crucial role in Syria’s rebuilding efforts, drawing on their deep ties with the West and financial strength. Officials from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, as well as the Gulf Cooperation Council, have all called for the lifting of international sanctions on Syria during recent visits to Damascus. While no official from the United Arab Emirates has visited Syria yet to meet with the new leadership, the country’s minister of foreign affairs, Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, hosted his Syrian counterpart in Abu Dhabi in December 2024 to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral ties. Furthermore, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan received a phone call from Sharaa, during which he expressed his country’s support for the Syrian people’s aspirations for stability and security.
Gulf countries have also expressed strong support for Syria’s economic recovery, but efforts on the ground remain limited due to sanctions. Qatar has taken the lead on the economic front wherever sanctions allow. In December 2024, the Qatar Fund for Development delivered 16 tons of humanitarian aid to Damascus to help ease the economic strain on civilians. In January, Qatar pledged to help finance the planned 400% salary increase for public sector employees in Syria, and, along with Turkey, announced plans to provide electricity-generating ships. Since Assad’s fall, Saudi Arabia has sent at least 14 relief planes and 60 trucks with humanitarian aid. On February 12, Kuwait sent its 24th plane carrying tons of humanitarian aid to Damascus.
The lifting of Western sanctions on Syria is crucial for its economic recovery and long-term regional stability. With the Assad regime now gone, the fundamental rationale for those sanctions has collapsed, and the international community needs to take action to support the Syrian people in rebuilding their country and securing their future.
