On U.S.-Gulf relations, a Harris administration would inherit a well-established framework to advance – one it is unlikely to abandon.
Whether or not former President Donald J. Trump wins the presidency for a second time, his commercial brand will remain a visible feature of the Gulf region.
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on the Saudi economy in 2025, but policy differences between the two candidates could have longer-term implications for the kingdom.
The short-term effects of the U.S. presidential election for policy toward the Gulf region are likely to be minimal, though the most consequential effect may be indirect and long term.
Regardless of who prevails in November's presidential election, the next U.S. administration may contend with either a nuclear-armed or fragmented Iran.
Iraq’s Kurdish population may benefit more from a consistent U.S. foreign policy under Harris than the unpredictability of another Trump term.
The opposing candidates’ energy policy agendas have stark differences, and each will have ramifications for the Gulf oil exporters, the global climate agenda, and international trade relations.
No matter who wins the presidency in November, the United States will need a strategy that allows it to protect free and open trade in the Red Sea without becoming bogged down in an open-ended conflict in Yemen.
On October 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the implications of regional conflict and the U.S. presidential election on oil prices.
On October 9, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the U.S. presidential election and what it means for U.S.-Middle East policy.
GCC states will see advantages and disadvantages from either outcome in the U.S. presidential election but will rely on the persistence of long-standing ties.
For the Houthis, this is an existential fight. But the United States has a harder path to success.
Learn MoreEven if the Ukraine war comes to an end, the implications of Russia’s partnerships with Iran and the Houthis will last, and the consequences will be felt, first and foremost, in the Gulf.
Exports of power from the Gulf’s thriving renewables and battery sector could become a key driver of the economy, but restrained grid interconnectivity with neighbors limits any breakthrough.
The oil price environment remains manageable but looks increasingly uncomfortable for some Gulf states.
Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
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