Visiting Fellow, AGSIW
Tim Callen is a visiting fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Callen is a former assistant director in the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund. He served as the IMF’s mission chief for Saudi Arabia and as the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ division from 2012-21. He was responsible for the IMF’s engagement with the government of Saudi Arabia and for the institution’s research and publications on the country. He also led the IMF’s research program on the GCC region. From 2021-22, he served as special advisor to the executive director for Saudi Arabia at the IMF’s Executive Board. Callen’s research interests focus on oil exporting countries and include prospects and policies for economic diversification away from oil, frameworks and institutions to limit procyclical fiscal policy, and appropriate exchange rate policies. Callen joined the IMF in 1993 and also worked in the Asia and Pacific, Communications, and Research departments. Before joining the IMF, he worked in the Economic Departments at the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia and at Hambros Bank. He holds a bachelor’s in economics from the University of Essex and a master’s in economics from the University of Warwick.
Aramco is unlikely to be able to sustain its current dividend payout absent a strong rebound in oil revenue. A reduced dividend would have negative implications for the finances of the government and Public Investment Fund.
Revised data suggests that FDI into the nonhydrocarbon sector in Saudi Arabia has been on an upward trend since 2020.
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on the Saudi economy in 2025, but policy differences between the two candidates could have longer-term implications for the kingdom.
The sharp decline in oil prices raises difficult questions for OPEC+ and, if sustained, will have important implications for Saudi Arabia’s fiscal policy.
On September 12, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia’s reforms and the prospects for its economy.
Aramco’s high dividend payout may not be sustainable, and any decline in dividend payments would adversely affect the government budget and Public Investment Fund.
Fiscal data for the first half of 2024 suggests that the government fiscal deficit will be larger than budgeted due to continued strong spending growth.
The boom in tourism is boosting external revenue, employment, and growth, but it is also contributing to higher imports and remittance outflows that have negatively affected the current account balance.
The July 8 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight highlights how labor market indicators improved in the first quarter of 2024, with the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals falling to its lowest level on record.
The June 10 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight examines how the extension of oil production cuts and a slowdown in private consumption growth will make economic growth in 2024 weaker than expected a few months ago.
Foreign direct investment flows into Saudi Arabia look set to pick up, but they are still likely to fall short of Vision 2030’s ambitious targets.
The May 29 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight examines Saudi Arabia’s use of an array of funding sources to finance its ambitious investment programs.
On June 11, AGSIW convened its 10th annual Petro Diplomacy conference.
Efforts to diversify the Saudi economy continued to bear fruit in 2023, although oil is still the dominant economic force.
The March 28 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight examines trends in unemployment and labor force participation rates for Saudi nationals.
Aramco should be able to sustain its higher dividend payout through 2025, but beyond this it will be increasingly dependent on higher oil revenue.
On March 14, AGSIW hosted a discussion on economic diversification in Qatar.
The March 12 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight examines the continued strong performance of Aramco.
The March 11 edition of the Saudi Economic Spotlight examines detailed data on Saudi Arabia’s economic contraction in 2023.
The transfer of Saudi Aramco equity helps grow the PIF but could leave a hole in the 2024 government budget.
On February 1, AGSIW hosted a panel discussion on Oman's economic and financial development.
Positive developments in four indicators during 2024 – the female labor force participation rate, tourist arrivals, foreign direct investment inflows, and student educational attainment – will give confidence that the bold diversification plans underway in Saudi Arabia are on track.
AGSIW experts explain the regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
On January 17, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the economic outlook in the Gulf Cooperation Council.
On January 9, AGSIW hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they looked ahead and assessed trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.
The Saudi economy is likely to grow by around 1.5% in 2024 with the non-oil sector expanding by 3% to 4%. However, uncertainties are high, centering around the oil market, conflict in Gaza, path of U.S. monetary policy, and effects of domestic reforms.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is likely to become the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund by the end of the decade, but raising the resources to fund its ambitious domestic investment program may increase economic and financial risks.
On October 5, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Saudi women's economic engagement.
The Saudi government is ramping up spending as it seeks to support economic development and diversification, pushing the fiscal balance into deficit despite high oil prices.
On September 21, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Saudi Arabia's economic future.
Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification plans are showing signs of progress, although the economy remains heavily reliant on oil.
A thorough analysis of the government budget, debt, and net asset positions is needed to understand the fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia and any implications this may have for oil market policy.
Labor market data from the 2022 census is still to be published but once released could have important implications for the central goals of Vision 2030 given the recent large downward revision to population estimates.
On June 20, AGSIW hosted a discussion on the economic statecraft of the Gulf Arab states.
