The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states, however, that the U.S. is pursuing a managed diplomatic opening with Iran that will begin with the nuclear issue and spread to commercial and political ties. Iran’s efforts to engage diplomatically with its Gulf neighbors in July of 2015, specifically with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to Kuwait, demonstrated the tension in changing regional dynamics. In fact, the commercial rapprochement with Iran is a fait accompli, as the international will to continue economic sanctions has withered. The lifting of most economic sanctions on Iran has cemented the Gulf Arab states’ perception that the U.S. is less engaged with its Sunni Arab allies, thus exposing them to more risk from an emboldened Iran.
Kuwait’s upcoming elections bring hopes for a new beginning for the executive and legislative branches of government. But that depends on the elections' outcome and the relationship forged with new government leadership.
National day celebrations have become a crucial element in the ongoing construction of Saudi Arabia’s national narrative, highlighting the centrality of the ruling family and its legacy in the establishment of the state.
No matter who succeeds the supreme leader, the IRGC will be the most likely kingmaker.
Through its careful examination of the forces shaping the evolution of Gulf societies and the new generation of emerging leaders, AGSIW facilitates a richer understanding of the role the countries in this key geostrategic region can be expected to play in the 21st century.
Learn More
