The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or P5 +1 nuclear agreement, as its signatories emphasize, is a single issue agreement. It is not necessarily a signal that Iran is opening politically, nor does it indicate that the U.S. has forgotten Iran’s history of supporting terrorist groups. There is a growing suspicion among Arab Gulf states, however, that the U.S. is pursuing a managed diplomatic opening with Iran that will begin with the nuclear issue and spread to commercial and political ties. Iran’s efforts to engage diplomatically with its Gulf neighbors in July of 2015, specifically with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s visit to Kuwait, demonstrated the tension in changing regional dynamics. In fact, the commercial rapprochement with Iran is a fait accompli, as the international will to continue economic sanctions has withered. The lifting of most economic sanctions on Iran has cemented the Gulf Arab states’ perception that the U.S. is less engaged with its Sunni Arab allies, thus exposing them to more risk from an emboldened Iran.

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